interesting BBS news linky
1) So Iran is talking of providing a conferance where the legitimacy of the holocaust can be discussed ....
2) It is talking to Opec to try and cut oil production, presumably in an effort to show the world it can hurt it unless we concede to its actions.
3) It has provoked such world outrage at its alarming nuclear programme that it is facing possible long term sanctions unless it complies with demands from some world governments.
And so I wonder what will happen in the long term ...
1) Iran will be criticised world wide and also seen as a missinformation/propaganda producer unless it finds that there was a holocaust. Any other result would simply be questioned as a pre-requisite to giving it justification to hurt Israel.
2) It does not matter long term. Raising oil prices short term will only induce more development in energy sources not dependant on oil. We see these today in many pilot schemes run by councils in the UK where they can afford to test such energy. Buses running on gas and electricity.
Short term, yes it will hurt the world, longer term? Make something so expensive, natural market forces dictate an alternative will be found. Kill their own market and Iran will lose its one natural marketable asset. It could end in poverty in a decade.
As a producer of anything, Iran is pitiful. Only half its workforce *can* work ... but thats another matter.
3) The backlash from this is being seen, even now. No government on earth wishes to see nuclear weapons in the hands of fanatics, which it appears by the new campaign to missinform and degradate the holocaust, to ignore its neighbours and the world ... that Iran is. A totally fanatical country with *this* current regime.
I doubt the UN will allow the current Iranian regime to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
Take away Oil revenue and Iran would be forced to wake up to its base economic and social problems, caused by its strict adherance to a religious law. half of which is all based on sheer interpretation and never even mentioned in the koran. Laws designed to keep women underfoot and male clerics in power. It is not competitive in the global markets as a result, unlike other muslim countries (turkey).
My real thought is .. are we witnessing the first of the death throws of a regime that has no viable economic or idealogical basis in a modern world? That it is kicking out and trying to impose a footprint before it is too late for its own survival? Please note, I say modern world, not just US/Europe. The world will put pressure on Iran once the oil money runs out, the global markets ....
Basically I see no future for this regime.
Thoughts?
Edited, Sun Jan 15 15:28:47 2006 by JennockFV