Iran - crossing the line?Follow

interesting BBS news linky

1) So Iran is talking of providing a conferance where the legitimacy of the holocaust can be discussed ....

2) It is talking to Opec to try and cut oil production, presumably in an effort to show the world it can hurt it unless we concede to its actions.

3) It has provoked such world outrage at its alarming nuclear programme that it is facing possible long term sanctions unless it complies with demands from some world governments.

And so I wonder what will happen in the long term ...

1) Iran will be criticised world wide and also seen as a missinformation/propaganda producer unless it finds that there was a holocaust. Any other result would simply be questioned as a pre-requisite to giving it justification to hurt Israel.

2) It does not matter long term. Raising oil prices short term will only induce more development in energy sources not dependant on oil. We see these today in many pilot schemes run by councils in the UK where they can afford to test such energy. Buses running on gas and electricity.
Short term, yes it will hurt the world, longer term? Make something so expensive, natural market forces dictate an alternative will be found. Kill their own market and Iran will lose its one natural marketable asset. It could end in poverty in a decade.
As a producer of anything, Iran is pitiful. Only half its workforce *can* work ... but thats another matter.

3) The backlash from this is being seen, even now. No government on earth wishes to see nuclear weapons in the hands of fanatics, which it appears by the new campaign to missinform and degradate the holocaust, to ignore its neighbours and the world ... that Iran is. A totally fanatical country with *this* current regime.

I doubt the UN will allow the current Iranian regime to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances.

Take away Oil revenue and Iran would be forced to wake up to its base economic and social problems, caused by its strict adherance to a religious law. half of which is all based on sheer interpretation and never even mentioned in the koran. Laws designed to keep women underfoot and male clerics in power. It is not competitive in the global markets as a result, unlike other muslim countries (turkey).

My real thought is .. are we witnessing the first of the death throws of a regime that has no viable economic or idealogical basis in a modern world? That it is kicking out and trying to impose a footprint before it is too late for its own survival? Please note, I say modern world, not just US/Europe. The world will put pressure on Iran once the oil money runs out, the global markets ....

Basically I see no future for this regime.

Thoughts?

Edited, Sun Jan 15 15:28:47 2006 by JennockFV

I expect to be deployed as part of G.W.Bush's war machine in the later months of the year, people in the senior officer ranks are already dropping not very subtle hints about it.

Things like expect the winter deployment to west africa to be slightly more easterly.

Sucks really but i can't afford to be rocking the boat at this stage of my career.

If you see HMS Ocean sinking of the coast of Iran in December, raise a glass for me.

Iranian nuclear test site.



Edited, Sun Jan 15 19:11:39 2006 by fenderputy

1. they hate Israel. hate them. almost every one in the middle east does. this hatred will not end untill an assiryan leads an army against Israel, so the Bible says. and aparrently, it looks to be heading that way. they will denounce any hardship the jewish people of Israel endure to raise support for attacking them.

2. its their oil. WE forced the limits opec imposses on the middle east as a reason not to invade them and TAKE it. something we had actually planned on doing after the gas crises in 1970. we were going to invade Saudi Arabia. a military presence there, and opec assurances there would be no more embargos were the trade offf for us not invading their country and stealing what belongs to them.

3. we appointed ourselves the dictator of who does and does not get nuclear capability. eventually, nuclear proliferation will happen throughout the world. there is no stopping it. and Iran has just as much right to develop nuclear capability as anyone else in the world.
now, weather Israel lets them is another story. Israel WILL attack them if they do. they already have in the past. they attacked a nuclear power plant WE, the U.S., were building for Iran back when we were on their side in the Iran / Iraq pissing contest.

as far as all of this going away?

not going to happen in our life time.

the hatred towards Israel and the jewish people is too great. something really really bad is going to happen before its over. really, the only way to end it without blood shed is to remove the israeli people from the middle east.

rights or no rights, that is the only way to end this stupidity. eventually one of these islamic groups or country,s WILL get a nuclear devise and wipe Israel from the face of the earth. untill either Israel decides to leave, which wont happen, or untill they get wiped from the map, which might happen, all we can do is oppress the hell out of them, which is wrong in itself.

three wrongs dont make a right, they just make a simmering problem that will eventually boil over.

welcome to humanity. where stupidity prevails.

my suggestion? develop an alternative energy source and subsidize the hell out of it world wide. turn the entire middle east into another etheopia, a desert full of starving people. without oil, without the money WE are pumping into their economy, that is exactly what it would be.

but to much money to be made by big bussiness, so lets keep playing the oppression game in the name of economics.

more stupidity. its a wonder we survived this long.

your last 2 paragraphs there are very ironic in a sad way. for the past 15+ years i have been making the statement that the ME and for that matter most 3rd world nations, problem is not their location, not their form of government, not the people. it is the mentality of tribes.

almost every nation in the ME is still tribe based laws, areas of action, and governing. this means they are living the way man was living back in the middle ages. why do you think that the majority of the public is undereducated and ignorant to the reality that is life today in the 21st century.

if the ME wants to play with big boy toys, then they need to grow up as a nation and become a nation instead of a colective group of tribes that live in the emaginry boundries of a geographical area on the map that most of them would not have the foggiest clue how to read.

Edited, Mon Jan 16 12:47:43 2006 by Singdall

Edited, Mon Jan 16 12:48:26 2006 by Singdall

EH, the natives have been blowing up nigerian oil platforms and taking crews hostage for years now. Shell rolls over, gives them some more money, a new solar powered water treatment center, and a yak, along with promises to clean the polution they make up, then they go continue doing the same old thing for another 3 months until the next villiage decides they want a yak too.

The warri region of the niger delta in particular is pretty much the ultimate hellhole. almost the entire teenage population is A. hopped up on heroin and other easily available drugs coming down from Afghanistan and the like. B. Armed to the teath with cheaply available kalishnakov rifles, and C. have at least early stage aids, so they really don't have anything to lose. Give them a few years down there to get organized and things could go badly realy quick like. Then again the government down there has no compunctions about carpet bombing groups of people larger than 2, so maybe it will balance out?

Maybe the world needs a reminder of what the Nuclear Genie looks like. If Iran continues being bellicose, we should drop a Little Boy right on Tehran's front porch and give them a good view.

Israel can start our proxy-crusade for us. That would be the most desirable outcome. Israel strikes first, Syria will try to counter-attack since they have an agreement with Iran. The US will throw its hands up in the air and wave em like they just don't ca-are whilst positioning a carrier strike force for a counter-counter attack.

We don't really have to lift a finger to get what we want. All we need to do is pretend to give a shi[/u]t because Iran's chock full of BO reeking fuc[/u]ktards that can't see the forest for the trees.

That'll come as great comfort to the people in the radioactive crater called New York city.

1. That would of course destroy the only reason we have to care about the whole region anyway;

2. Giving the innocents time to relocate would perforce also give the same advantage to the guilty;

3. Stop being a reactionary ******, or at least do it quietly.

1.) Kinda the point, I'm glad you didn't miss it.

2.) True, but they will be too spread out to claim themselves a new country and try to build up nuclear weapons again.

3.) I hardly call it being reactionary, when I'm saying to just go ahead and do it. Is what I'm saying retarded, yes, is it the way that we should handle the situation, in reality, no, but hey every man can dream.

I think that's a pretty safe bet, since a measurable minority of Americans feel that way about our own leader.

I sincerly hope that was sarcasm...