Jophiel wrote:
Secondly, having a car that uses electricity in whatever fashion to run means that we are powering cars with coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, geothermic and wind power versus a 100% reliance on oil to run our cars. Environment aside, we have a hell of a lot more coal than we do oil. We have a lot more natural gas reserves than we have petroleum reserves. Regardless of the net gain or loss in driving power per unit of energy, a switch to some form of electric car would be a huge reduction in dependance on foreign oil which is, simply, a good thing.
Yeah. Here's the problem though. Of those listed methods for generating electric power, which of those will most likely be used to cover the increase in power generation needed to provide electricity to power people's cars (regardless of specific method used at the end point)?
The "clean" methods of generating power are somewhat limited in terms of how much we can increase their output. You can't put a geothermal power plant just anywhere. Same with hydroelectric. Same with solar and wind for that matter. That leaves us with coal, natural gas, and nuclear to cover that increase. Currently, Coal produces about half of the total electric power generated in the US, with natural gas hitting about 20% (nuclear is another 20%). Point being that those three non-renewable sources represent 90% of the entire power generation in the US. No way can we cover an increase like that which would be needed to convert to electric vehicles without increasing the power generation by those three.
I'm not sure on the infrastructure in terms of natural gas. To read about it, it's much more efficient and clean then coal burning, but I'd have to assume there's an availability issue preventing it from scaling more in terms of use. Maybe that'll change. Maybe not. My guess is that most of the increase would simply be covered via coal burning. While it's not terribly efficient, and it's incredibly dirty, it's the most readily available source, and that means we'd just be replacing the burning of gas in cars with the burning of coal in power plants.
Unless we utilized nuclear power of course. Again. I'm all for that. I think we *should* be doing that. But the US has not brought a new nuclear power plant online in something like 25 years. Almost entirely due to negative public perception by eco-groups who seem to connect anything with the word "nuclear" in it to atomic weapons. Go figure!
Ok. There's some legitimate environmental issues with nuclear power. But it's generally so drowned out by the rhetoric that most people aren't aware of anything more then "nuclear power==bad". Which is too bad...
I'd like to think that we could just build the alternative techs and push the market that way. And that's probably how we *will* do it (cause it's the only way it's going to happen, right?). I'm not as optimistic as you are about how that'll affect things though. Yeah. It's something we need to do. It's something we *are* doing, but I think that the gains in terms of the environment and impact on non-renewable sources is far less then most people think. The only way to generate a truely significant environmental gain is to utilize nuclear power to generate the electricity to run all these new fuel cells, hydrogen cells, and other nifty methods for running cars and such. But the way things look like they're going, we'll most likely just shift that "cost" on to burning of coal and natural gas (not sure what the limits of that is either and it's hard to find them).
As far as ending reliance on oil, that's really a far more complex topic as well. It's not just about gas in your car (although lots of people think that). I know that you know this, but most people don't. Each barrel of crude is refined into different weights of petrolium, which in turn provide different things. We get everything from jet fuel, to gasoline, to diesel fuel, to plastics from the refinery of oil. The percentages of each of those weights is set based on the crude used (with a pretty standard range of values obtained). The point being that for every X pounds of plastics we generate and use, we *also* refine Y gallons of jet fuel, and Z gallons of gasoline. We don't have a choice. It's part of the refining process and there isn't a whole lot you can do to change it (ok, there are, but they get progressively more expensive.
You can't just look at the numbers of gallons of gas we use in our cars each year, figure out how many barrels of crude oil that equates to, and say that if we can remove our need to run gas in our cars that we'll reduce our crude oil consumption by that much. It just doesn't work that way. What we'll do is reduce it by some amount (don't know the value and don't feel like looking it up), until we hit the next highest demand weight, and then that will be the amount of crude we have to consume. We'll also have to contend with the fact that we'll have generated a surplus of gasoline in the process (so we're going to just sell it somewhere else that needs it I suppose. Not exactly the goal the eco-folks had, right?). Also, a side effect is that other petrolium product will increase in price. Since I believe that gasoline is the current driver in terms of barrels of crude refined in the US, we can assume that right now, we have a surplus of the other products that result from the refinement of enough crude to supply our gasoline needs. Higher supply versus demand means lower prices. Decreasing that supply will raise prices. That may not be a significant factor at all, but it is something to point out. Hardest hit would be the next highest demand product on the list of things we use refined petrolium for. I have *no* clue what that is though...