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Prophetic words!Follow

#1 Sep 02 2005 at 11:44 AM Rating: Good
Ministry of Silly Cnuts
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Published 23rd May this year.

Thinking Big About Hurricanes

It's time to get serious about saving New Orleans.

by Chris Mooney

American Prospect Online wrote:
In the event of a slow-moving Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane (with winds up to or exceeding 155 miles per hour), it's possible that only those crow's nests would remain above the water level. Such a storm, plowing over the lake, could generate a 20-foot surge that would easily overwhelm the levees of New Orleans, which only protect against a hybrid Category 2 or Category 3 storm (with winds up to about 110 miles per hour and a storm surge up to 12 feet). Soon the geographical "bowl" of the Crescent City would fill up with the waters of the lake, leaving those unable to evacuate with little option but to cluster on rooftops -- terrain they would have to share with hungry rats, fire ants, nutria, snakes, and perhaps alligators. The water itself would become a festering stew of sewage, gasoline, refinery chemicals, and debris.

A direct hit from a powerful hurricane on New Orleans could furnish perhaps the largest natural catastrophe ever experienced on U.S. soil. Some estimates suggest that well over 25,000 non-evacuees could die. Many more would be stranded, and successful evacuees would have nowhere to return to.


There's much more in his article. I know everyone's tripping over themselves to say "I told you so", but I can't believe how uncanny his predictions are.

This is doesn't seem to be a recent back-dated spoof. Anyone heard anything?
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"I started out with nothin' and I still got most of it left" - Seasick Steve
#2 Sep 02 2005 at 11:47 AM Rating: Good
So is he the next prophet of modern times, or did he just use logical reasoning and common sense?

I don't think logic and common sense is that far of a stretch on this one.
#3 Sep 02 2005 at 11:50 AM Rating: Excellent
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they would have to share with hungry rats, fire ants, nutria, snakes, and perhaps alligators
In a survival situation, that Argentian muskrat wouldn't be a threat. It'd be my dinner. Smiley: grin
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#4 Sep 02 2005 at 11:53 AM Rating: Good
Argentinian Muskrat Steaks

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* To make gloomingdeep rat steak (Baking: Yield 1, trivial 15), Combine the following in a oven
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#5 Sep 02 2005 at 11:58 AM Rating: Good
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Nutria is a little gamey, but quite delicious. If you want high-quality meat though, only way to go is alpaca.
#6 Sep 02 2005 at 12:02 PM Rating: Excellent
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Raids on the New Orleans Zoo for choice alpaca meat may be frowned upon.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#7 Sep 02 2005 at 12:06 PM Rating: Good
Jophiel wrote:
Raids on the New Orleans Zoo for choice alpaca meat may be frowned upon.


Smiley: laugh
#8 Sep 02 2005 at 12:07 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Raids on the New Orleans Zoo for choice alpaca meat may be frowned upon, but I hear meat supplies are increasing at the Superdome.
There y'go
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"I started out with nothin' and I still got most of it left" - Seasick Steve
#9 Sep 02 2005 at 12:37 PM Rating: Decent
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Here's another prophecy for the "Big Easy", Gone With The Water.

Published in National Geographic Oct. 2004.
#10 Sep 02 2005 at 1:26 PM Rating: Decent
I read a book over the summer which was written in 1989: http://www.johnmcphee.com/controlofnature.htm

which spoke of the herculean efforts of humans to control nature. One of the three sections was on the lower Mississippi, which geologically is going to change course, but for the moment (on a geologic time scale) is (was?) being held back by a series of earthen dams (levees).

We the people of the United States built those levees (Army Corps of Engineers), and we'll pay for the damage (yes, Red Cross has collected on the order of US$10 million, but the US federal government is looking at authorizing one thousand times that much).

It might be prudent to give people a choice: (A) rebuild elsewhere (1) above sea level, and (2) out of the course of the river - or (B) rebuild right where you were *but* FEMA's not going to bail you out again. Buy insurance.

What if it had been a category five? What if it had been a direct hit? What if the next one is?

It's not like the USA is like Japan, or the Netherlands - we're not really pressed for space.

#11 Sep 02 2005 at 1:31 PM Rating: Excellent
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I still maintain that New Orleans will be rebuilt and that it must be rebuilt in some fashion due to the port. However, I'm thinking a lot of people won't be coming back and perhaps the city will find itself in a more managable condition with under a million people and more construction on higher ground.

I mentioned before about a United flight of medical personnel to NO that returned with 150 people. From the story, none of them wished to go back to New Orleans and they planned to petition the Red Cross to help them relocate to Chicago permanently.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#12 Sep 02 2005 at 1:50 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
I still maintain that New Orleans will be rebuilt and that it must be rebuilt in some fashion due to the port.

Why not build a port city on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain? Seems like it'd be easy enough to dredge a canal connecting the lake to the river. Unless it's all wetlands up there as well.


#13 Sep 02 2005 at 2:19 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'm no geologist but it's my understanding that the whole region is pretty much the same for soil conditions. New Orleans just made the situation worse by blocking off the waters and pumping out from the water table below. Building a new city in near about the same spot would seem to require the same measures (and same end effect) as you saw in New Orleans.

Again though, I'm no geologist. Heck, maybe we should let the Mississippi change course into the Atchafalaya river like it wants to and try to build in that swamp instead.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#14 Sep 02 2005 at 2:22 PM Rating: Good
Has anyone thought about rebuilding New Orleans into a cloud city and having Billy Dee Williams become the most ********** mayhore ever??

Colt 45: It works every time.
#15 Sep 02 2005 at 2:44 PM Rating: Excellent
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With a whole lot of assumptions and estimating...

There's 180sq miles of land in New Orleans per Wikipedia. Let's decide to raise it 10' to improve drainage. We'll have to remove all the structures and set them aside for placement later but that's someone else's problem.

1 mile = 5280ln ft. 1 sq mile = 5280 x 5280 ft or 27,878,400 sq ft.
27,878,400 x 10' depth = 278,784,000 cubic feet of soil per sq mile
There's 27cu ft in a cubic yard so...
278,784,000/27 = 10,325,333cu yds per square mile
10,325,333cu yds/sq mile * 180sq miles = 1,858,559,940 cu yds total
We'll add 10% on that for soil compaction: 2,044,415,934 cu yds of soil needed to raise New Orleans ten feet.

It costs us (where I work) about $15/cu yd for soil. But most of this can be junk fill and we'll get a bulk rate I'd hope. We'll call it $5/cu yd not counting freight. This'll be a hell of a fuel charge.

A mere $10,222,079,670 in materials to raise New Orleans ten feet. Sounds like a union contract to me.

Yes, I know there's changes in elevation, etc. I'm just crunching numbers for the fun of it...
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#16 Sep 02 2005 at 2:53 PM Rating: Decent
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Make sure you get a good warranty on the 10ft additional elevation.

I more likely scenario is to continue to try and control the water. Gating off the Lake as a storm approaches, rebuilding wetlands etc.

It shouldn't happen. We should let the mighty Mississippi be. It's NOT nice to fool with mother nature.
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#17 Sep 02 2005 at 4:44 PM Rating: Good
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Elinda wrote:
It shouldn't happen. We should let the mighty Mississippi be. It's NOT nice to fool with mother nature.

I'm posting from where I am because engineers reversed the flow of the Chicago River in 1900 to keep sewage from pouring into our drinking water, i.e. Lake Michigan.

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