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#1 Jan 12 2005 at 7:53 PM Rating: Default
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I want top make this clear; I'm not here to debate the merits or detriments that homeland security has on personal freedoms or whatever, but I was thinking today about what exactly the U.S. is doing to try and prevent another terrorist attack. Homeland security, Patriot Act, and all that jazz associated with it.

Now, correct me if i'm wrong, but I'm to understand that the point of terrorism isn't really to kill people, or wage war, but rather, amazingly enough, to create terror in the minds of the people.

Is it not the point of terrorism to make people so afraid of some force, as to make them drasticly change thier lifestyles in response to it? It is to create enough fear as to either disable a country by paralysis, or to make the people give in to demands based in a looming threat.

Now, I ask, what have we done in response to the terrorism? Is implementing homeland security not giving in to Al Queda or whoever the hell else is the terrorist organization of the month?

A friend of mine put it as such. It's like getting your house burgled; 1) if someone breaks in you back door, and you put 50,000 guards out to make sure it doesn't happen again, chances are, the burgler will try another way back in; 2) Is not putting said 50,000 guards outside going just a little overboard, if the guards are disturbing you more than a minor burglery ever did, is the point kinda not defeated?

I guess what I'm trying to say is by implementing so many laws and restrictions, and allowing our lifestyles to change so drasticly, we have giving in to the very people we are trying to fight.

It just seems a little odd to me that people will allow themselves to live in fear in order to fight terrorism, when it pretty much defeats the purpose of the fight.
#2 Jan 12 2005 at 8:03 PM Rating: Default
can you name one way in which you personally have been affected? Just curious. If I were not in the Military besides standing a bit longer in security lines at the airport my life really wouldnt have been affected.
#3 Jan 12 2005 at 8:04 PM Rating: Good
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Saying that instituting security measures is "giving in to the terrorists" is a tad ridiculous. That's like the trolls that come into the Asylum and pat themselves on the back for getting us to say "GFY" to them.

I don't think the measures of security we've taken are overboard, at least not in quantity. Especially considering some of the shortcomings of our intelligence agencies in recent history. Although some of the measures may be...misguided. It's not the expense that concerns people (your 50,000 guard example), it's questionable practices that may violate personal freedoms.

Taking off my shoes at the airport and getting wanded doesn't really bother me. I'd rather be inconvenienced than be burning wreckage. However, the Patriot Act doesn't seem to be the answer.

#4 Jan 12 2005 at 8:09 PM Rating: Good
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DamthebiTch Quick Hands wrote:
can you name one way in which you personally have been affected? Just curious. If I were not in the Military besides standing a bit longer in security lines at the airport my life really wouldnt have been affected.

Not really relevant.

A law allowing prison guards to beat inmates wouldn't affect me personally, yet I have a vested interest in it.


#5 Jan 12 2005 at 8:10 PM Rating: Decent
The only thing that will win this "war" is if we throw politics out the window and make it clear that for every one of us they kill, we will kill fifty. You fight terrorism with force. You make the price of the crime so high that it is a deterrent. Of course, that would upset this or that subgroup, but the president should go on the air and point blank say we will eradicate you and your family from the earth if you wage holy war with us. And then carry it out.
#6 Jan 12 2005 at 8:13 PM Rating: Default
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Quote:
Saying that instituting security measures is "giving in to the terrorists" is a tad ridiculous...Taking off my shoes at the airport and getting wanded doesn't really bother me


Naw it doesn't bother me either. I think some response is obviously necessary. Referenceing the burglery example, obviously you would change somthing about your security. Put a deadbolt on it or somthing, buy an alarm.

I was trying to argue the principle, that if to fight terror, you have to create it, it seems to kinda defeat the purpose of fighting it.

I just think I could feasibly see the head honchos of all the cells sitting back in some cave, having a really nice chuckle at all the ruckus they caused.
#7 Jan 12 2005 at 8:15 PM Rating: Decent
I think we should seek out to make them the ones insecure. Fight fire with fire, after all, we have more of it.
#8 Jan 12 2005 at 8:15 PM Rating: Default
Quote:
Not really relevant.

A law allowing prison guards to beat inmates wouldn't affect me personally, yet I have a vested interest in it.



The OP wrote.

Quote:
I guess what I'm trying to say is by implementing so many laws and restrictions, and allowing our lifestyles to change so drasticly, we have giving in to the very people we are trying to fight.


My point is can he point to something specific that has been instituted that infringes on his lifestyle. ala the 50,000 guards. Or I will go you one better something that has effected American's lifestyle. Other than minor inconviences.
#9 Jan 12 2005 at 8:19 PM Rating: Good
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The nature of society is about giving up certain freedoms in return for safety.

You give up the freedom to swing your fist at random people for the safety of not having it done to you. You give up the freedom to drive through the park for the safety of not being hit while walking through the park.

This is part of the social contract between the government and the governed.

Terrorism is an attempt to convince the governed that the government cannot protect them. Theoretically, this will lead to the governing forcing the government to heed the terrorists wishes to prevent further attack.

In the current situation, however, this has led to the governed forfeiting more rights to the government in the pursuit of safety. The question, as always, is how many rights the governed are willing to surrender. The alternative, generally, is revolution - overthrow of the government and replacing it with something the governed feel will protect them better.

A friend of mine who has a masters in history specifically focusing on revolutions pointed out once that populations never overthrow governments during times of crises - they tend to band together against the common foe. It's when the population believes that a crisis is coming and that the government cannot stop it that they tend to revolt.

So, how far with the American population (and, admittedly, others) go in sacrificing personal freedoms for the sake of safety? What will happen if, in spite of these sacrifices, said safety is not delivered?

It should be interesting, as a social study if nothing else. Living through it, though, may be less enjoyable.

Some rebels once wrote something that reflects this train of thought well.

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That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

Emphasis added

#10 Jan 12 2005 at 8:22 PM Rating: Decent
Warlord Lefein wrote:
The only thing that will win this "war" is if we throw politics out the window and make it clear that for every one of us they kill, we will kill fifty. You fight terrorism with force. You make the price of the crime so high that it is a deterrent. Of course, that would upset this or that subgroup, but the president should go on the air and point blank say we will eradicate you and your family from the earth if you wage holy war with us. And then carry it out.


But there's 6 billion people on the planet. Even using our potent military we'd have a tough time killing "them" faster than their reproductive rates, if in mass slaughters of "them", "they" exponentially increase their numbers in response. I guess we could turn to nukes for more efficient mass slaughter though...

IMO the reaction to terrorism should be two-fold--first your idea of attacking and killing those already involved in it. But more importantly, a better strategic response to why they're attacking us. To prevent another hundred million from becoming terrorists. Contrary to popular belief, it's not because they're jealous of our freedoms or such. Most are pissed at us for fu[b][/b]cking with thier societies. I'm just surprised there aren't more anti-US South American terrorist groups. Chileans for one would have excellent reasons to want to kill us.

So, a more moderated, intelligent, and far-sighted foreign policy is the primary prophylaxis to terrorism. No way we can get everyone to love America--it shouldn't even be a goal. Neutrality should be a goal. Nearly 200 countries manage to coexist with Middle East and oil needs without interferring with its countries. We ought to think about starting to do that. We don't need to be the oil protecter of the rest of the world and suffer all the negative consequences of it. Not isolationism, but non-interventionism.

John Quincy Adams wrote:
[America] well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standards of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force.

#11 Jan 12 2005 at 8:25 PM Rating: Decent
Oh, to the Patriot Act, homeland security, etc...yes, it's a test as fundamental as our martial response to terrorism. A test of all three branches of our government, and of our people's compliance or rejection of a more fascist government. I've been pretty happy with our responses to such. My only comment on the Patriot Act would be--it should be broken up and not voted wholly nay or yea. It has many good inter-agency allowances, but also many anti-Constitutional dangers. It really should be more than one bill.
#12 Jan 12 2005 at 8:29 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:
Or I will go you one better something that has effected American's lifestyle. Other than minor inconviences.

I couldn't find any in 30 seconds of googling, but I recall a few instances in which some Muslim college professors have been injusticed or persecuted based on writings critical of America.

Also, the simple fact that the Patriot Act legalizes certain injustices is enough that to affect people, whether or not anyone has actually been unfairly prosecuted yet.
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I think we should seek out to make them the ones insecure. Fight fire with fire, after all, we have more of it.

Yes, defeat a nebulous, abstract concept with no real 'base' by "fighting it with fire." Smiley: rolleyes
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I just think I could feasibly see the head honchos of all the cells sitting back in some cave, having a really nice chuckle at all the ruckus they caused.

Which is why I made the analogy to forum trolls who do the same thing. Obviously, we have to respond in some way.

The difference that increasing national security isn't a response that will provoke terrorists into retaliating further. Waging war IS a response that will provoke further violence.

#13 Jan 12 2005 at 8:31 PM Rating: Default
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Quote:
I think we should seek out to make them the ones insecure. Fight fire with fire, after all, we have more of it.

Quote:

we throw politics out the window and make it clear that for every one of us they kill, we will kill fifty


By all means, I have nothing against a law that fights the problem. I just don't like when there is a law that seems to fight the symptoms more than the disease. No matter how many terrorists we eliminate there will be more unless the idea itself is destroyed, be that with psycology or force.

I view the patriot act as somthing of a symptom killer. So it catches a thousand terrorists, but the idea of terrorism would live on until it was eliminated, be it by force or other means.
#14 Jan 12 2005 at 8:39 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:
The only thing that will win this "war" is if we throw politics out the window and make it clear that for every one of us they kill, we will kill fifty. You fight terrorism with force. You make the price of the crime so high that it is a deterrent. Of course, that would upset this or that subgroup, but the president should go on the air and point blank say we will eradicate you and your family from the earth if you wage holy war with us. And then carry it out.


Who exactly are the fifty for each 'they' kill? Their family, their friends, random people of a similiar ethnic group or maybe religious group or just people from the same nation? How do we get them? Do we ask the countries they live in nicely and invade them if they don't hand them over? Do we exclude woman or children? Is 16 old enough to include? How about 15 or 14? Maybe we should make it easy for us and just fire missles into their citys at random. Of course we would be attacking a soverien nation and not the terrorist directly but these people need to learn, am I right? For something realy serious, something that caused a lot of cassualites, like say 9/11 maybe it would be easier to simply release a biological agent like say anthrax and shoot anyone who leaves the area.

You need to grow up you 'tard.
#15 Jan 12 2005 at 8:45 PM Rating: Decent
The reason I reach my conclusion is that (and I really should have made this clear) We need to project the message to that part of the world that they can clean up their own messes. We truly cannot stop radicalism, in that respect you are all right in correcting me. However, if we make it clear that this is not something we want to do, but something we feel forced to do.. Then the terrorists will eventually fall out of the sympathy of their people. To me, Iraq was probably the largets step in the wrong direction towards this goal. No WMDs have been found, so now it looks like a war that we wanted to go to as opposed to one that we were reluctantly pulled into. That may or may not be the case, and the debate rages on. However, that war in the Middle East will forever be shrouded in ambiguity because the facts were overlooked. Perhaps Iraq itself isn't a quagmire, but our War on Terror (the one we should be fighting) has now become one. We are no longer the reluctant giant, but a raging bull.. At least to the eyes of an average Middle easterner.
#16 Jan 12 2005 at 8:48 PM Rating: Good
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Then the terrorists will eventually fall out of the sympathy of their people.

If terrorists ceased their actions out of "sympathy," they wouldn't be terrorists in the first place.


#17 Jan 12 2005 at 8:52 PM Rating: Decent
No, sorry, you misunderstand me. What I mean is, their own people would start turning them in. Because they would see that their presence would draw unwanted attention. Kind of like if a crack dealer moved in next door to you. Would you call law enforcement or wait for the gang violence to ensue?
#18 Jan 12 2005 at 8:52 PM Rating: Decent
No, sorry, you misunderstand me. What I mean is, their own people would start turning them in. Because they would see that their presence would draw unwanted attention. Kind of like if a crack dealer moved in next door to you. Would you call law enforcement or wait for the gang violence to ensue?
#19 Jan 12 2005 at 8:55 PM Rating: Good
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So Lefein, who exactly do you want to attack? Give me a country, or a region, or something. Also state your reason for attacking, and why you think it won't turn out like Iraq has.

#20 Jan 12 2005 at 8:55 PM Rating: Excellent
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So here's your plan in steps.

1) Terrorists attack.
2) We retaliate by killing random people in mass. People who we suspect to be the same race, religion, etc?
3) This prompts the surviving people, those that we randomly killed their neighbors, friends, etc. to turn in the terrorists from step 1.
4) We all dance around in candy gumpdrop land.

I think you just skipped and went to step 4 buddy.
#21 Jan 12 2005 at 9:04 PM Rating: Decent
I didnt say it would be easy. It's just what would have to be done. Terrorist organizations are nebulous.. They also have popular support (If they didnt we'd have uprooted them by now) At least Im willing to go after the enemy. What you propose is a status quo, which sounds more like gumdrop land. Anyone remember 1993?
#22 Jan 12 2005 at 9:34 PM Rating: Decent
Oh, and we should be as discriminant as possible, but unapologetic for casualties. After all, if they would turn the terrorists in in the first place we wouldnt have to go in with force.

Eh, it's all hogwash now, the damage has been done. In retrospect, I can see how the Iraq war has done more harm to the War on Terror than anything.. I don't give a crap what Europe thinks, but we've definitely tumbled into Empire mode by declaring war on false premises.
#23 Jan 13 2005 at 12:10 AM Rating: Good
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Palpitus wrote:

So, a more moderated, intelligent, and far-sighted foreign policy is the primary prophylaxis to terrorism. No way we can get everyone to love America--it shouldn't even be a goal. Neutrality should be a goal. Nearly 200 countries manage to coexist with Middle East and oil needs without interferring with its countries. We ought to think about starting to do that. We don't need to be the oil protecter of the rest of the world and suffer all the negative consequences of it. Not isolationism, but non-interventionism.


Sounds like you are arguing the merits of Real Politic versus Globalism. Understandable argument. I happen to disagree though. Lots of people seem to idolize Real Politic, especially those in Humanities programs at Universities. It's a straightforward idea that seems to be really popular with that particular crowd.


It's seems quite logical to work that way. Worry about your own concerns. Don't interfere with others unless you've got a direct interest in them. It's commonly bandied about in Europe as the "civlized" way to conduct politics. Unfortunately, just as socialism seems intellectually to be a wonderful solution to man's problems, Real Politic also has a hidden dark side that is rarely seen or explored in theory, but seems to bite us in practice virtually every time.

Real Politic tends to manifest as "Regionalism". A nation worrying specifically about it's own populace first and seeking not to "rock the boat" outside that group, will tend naturally to divide the world into regions. Areas where they have interests needed to satisfy their own population's needs, regions that may involve competitors, allies, and trade partners, and regions that "don't matter". This tends to result in some very "interesting" agreements and treaties between nation states that think this way.

This process and thought led us directly to WW1. It led us right on to WW2. It led us recently to the oil for food scam. The inherent problem with that approach to politics is that there is a great incentive to do things that aren't for the good of all, but rather for the good purely of your own country. Couple that with governments that are heavily invested in industry (as most EU governments are), and suddenly there's no reason to pay more for oil if you don't have to. And if a country that you "don't want to meddle with" gets to get away with breaking some rules as a result, that's not a problem (cause we shouldn't be messing with them in the first place, right?).

It doesn't take "evil" for that to happen. It just gradually moves in that direction. WW1 happened because each nation had its own interests. Instead of looking at the big picture (that Europe was a powderkeg) and trying to figure out how to fix things, they each kept hoping that they'd come out ahead from whatever happened. The wheeling and dealing kept going right up until the music stopped and the fighting began. Same exact thing in WW2. European nations refusing to enforce their own rules and allowing Germany and Italy to get away with whatever they wanted. After all, if you're France and you don't care about Austria, you don't care if it gets annexed. You don't care that much if Czechoslovakia does as well. And Poland? Not a chance. After all, taking action would be "meddling", right?


While there is some value in not being too much of a busybody, history has shown us convincingly that in an industrial world, nations focusing on their own issues and ignoring any sort of global outlook will result in increased conflict. The "goal" of Real Politic is to avoid confrontations, but that ultimately only ends up meaning that the ones that inevitably result are much larger then they could have been.

Globalism is the idea of taking actions with a more global view. While it certainly can be abused as well (and the US can be pointed at in that respect), there is at least the consolation that conflicts will tend not to become huge. It's the idea of taking a lot of smaller actions in order to avoid letting something become a problem that will be "big".

What's funny is that it's not as though the US has become any more agressive in its global stance in the last couple decades then it was before. What's actually happening is that Europe is receeding back into Regionalism and Real Politic. With the threat of the USSR receeding, they don't feel the urgent need to take action around the world, or work for a "common" good, or do anything that's outside their own backyard and their own interests. That's what we're really seeing here.

Their approach to terrorism (just to bring this back on topic) seems very practical. Don't mess with them, and they wont mess with us. But it's unrealistic. Well, it's realistic as long as there is someone else more "involved" then they are. That's where we come in. Europe is more then happy to allow us to be the bad guy and enforce the rules, and if it keeps the target off them, but keeps trade flowing as well, they make out great. Real Politic at its finest. The problem is that if everyone does that, the whole system collapses. Someone has to make the trade deals. Someone has to make sure there's some sort of order around the globe to prevent things from devolving into massive regional conflicts. Only Globalistic approaches address that.

So the really nice sounding method of dealing with Terrorism, while nice sounding, ultimately does not work when applied uniformally. It would be really nice to "get out of the middle east", but if everyone does that, where does the oil come from? Who do we buy it from? What nation? What tribe? And do we just sit back while that region slips into tribal fighting again? How many millions will die if we don't "meddle" in the middle east?


To address another aspect of this. Someone mentioned that the goal of terrorism is to change what somene else does. That's not totally correct. The goal of terrorism is to force a government to change its actions by making the population of that government force that change in order to stop the terrorism. Just change alone isn't that goal. I can guarantee you that there is not a single terrorist organization in the world that thinks that the passing of the patriot act furthers their cause, or sees it as a victory in *any* way. They don't see it that way. Why would they? It's a really odd sort of reverse thinking that comes up with the "By changing our way of life, the terrorists have won!" idea. It's just not true. It may indeed represent a "loss" to us, but it's not a "win" to them at all.

Also, you have to realize that there's a distinction between what the goal of terrorism is, and what motivates someone to become a terrorist. Most terrorists aren't thinking of forcing some kind of political change. They are people who, for one reason or another, hate another group enough to kill them indiscriminately. It's critically important to realize that distinction. You can stop a terrorist organization. Those are the groups that take people with that level of hate and use them for their political change agenda. You can attempt to stop those that hate, but that's pretty much impossible. In all history, there have always been groups that hate others for no reason that can be prevented. As long as different people have *any* interaction with eachother anywhere in the world, there will be people who will develop that level of hate.

Thus, the goal in a war against terrorism isn't to fight and kill those people. That's pretty ineffective. The goal is to destroy the groups and structures that take those people and point them at specific targets. Take away the money, and the training, and the leadership, and you're left with a bunch of people sitting around complaining about something. That's how you fight terrorism. In that respect Bush has been right on with how he's managed it. Instead of focusing on Bin Laden, or Al-queda, or any one specific group of terrorists, he's pushed for actions aimed at preventing those groups from being able to do anything effectively. That way you don't just squish the group in front of you, but you make it harder for the next group as well.


There is certainly some merit in trying to fix the actual problems that cause those groups to form in the first place, but it has to be addressed on a case by case basis and not as a blanket policy. You have to always realize that there will always be people who hate. You have to always realize that there will always be people who'll have the means and desire to take those people who hate, and turn them into a political weapon. Blanketly giving in to that only encourages more of it. That's not a good idea. Legitimate issues, should be addressed and resolved, but not because some group killed a bunch of people in an attack, but because they are legitimate issues. Interestingly enough, a globalistic approach can make those sorts of decisions (figuring out what's best not just for your region, but for another region as well). Real Politic will never do that. They'll do only what is required to prevent damage to themselves, but will *never* act to "fix" something in another part of the world.

Kind of a rambling post, I admit. But I really think that many people have some grave misunderstandings of the motivations and goals of terrorists. This seems to lead to some very flawed ideas about how to "fix" the problem. IMO, you can't run from terrorism. Once it starts, it will continue unless you do something about it. One can also argue that terrorism occurs when civil unrest *would*, but is prevented by those evil globalists who are keeping things stable in the region. Unable to collapse their own governments and take power, they instead turn to terrorism to attack that which is seen as getting in their way. This certainly seems to explain nicely why so many Saudi's become terrorists. Sprinkle in a bit of religion, and it's pretty easy to recruit. But we have really only two choices. Abandon the region and allow it to collapse entirely into war (which it will), or find a way to destroy the terrorist groups themselves. While Europe may be happy to sit on the fence on this, someone has to take action. Unfortunately, that's logically going to end up being the US.
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#24 Jan 13 2005 at 1:28 AM Rating: Decent
Quite an interesting post!

Well, what's odd is that I've often argued against realpolitik, but have never considered myself as one of its proponents. When arguing against it, I've generally seen it used as an excuse for such things as the Allende coup, or Iraq, or allying with Saudi Arabia. Certainly not isolationist acts, those.

But I may be on the realpolitik side when it comes to two aspects of foreign policy--******** directly with another country's government, and going to war. I think these decisions have been made much too lightly by the US in the last 50 or so years, with a myopic lack of foresight into long-term consequences, and I'd prefer to reserve their use for cases of truly dire circumstances. I don't however object to a robust international trade, any humanitarian concerns (assuming more than a single nation are doing so), and occasional economic and perhaps political sanctions. On the soft issues I guess I'm a globalist, on hard, isolationist. In both however I try to balance the worth of my stance to both my country and the world, not just my country.

I only partially see the need for a entity to be strongly proactive in the Middle East. Compared to some regions it actually isn't particularly volatile, with Israel-Arab wars accounting for about half the wars in the region in the last 60 years. Is this lack of volatility due to a superpower meddling in the region? I'd say not, as most of the time our meddling has bit us or others there dead in the ***. We're currently setting up Pakistan and Saudi Arabia nicely to become the newest "problems" of the next 10-20 years. I don't really see our efforts over there helping anyone.

Also our history there has not been one of pro-democracy; yet many of its nations have been on a recent democracy upsurge. We haven't mediated the Israel-Palestine-Arab conflict very well; yet many Arab nations now recognize Israel or even trade with it. I really can't think of any examples where we've been instrumental in any of these things improving, it seems we may have actually gone counter to them. If the ME is "stable", I'd say it's despite our efforts (no matter their intent), rather than because of them.

Finally, much of our meddling in the ME wasn't to keep it stable, it was to keep the Soviet influence out...or more properly the socialist influence. Our overall actions in the region can be summed up as "pro-capitalism" over any other intent. While a stable region makes for a better business partner, our vision of stable has often included overthrow of governments, siding with dictators, etc.

Realpolitik may have succeeded in terms of economic stability. In terms of social backlash though, it's failed miserably. And it's this backlash that's led to most of the anti-US sentiment in the region. Certainly many young men and women are brought up with a blanket "US is the Great Satan", and much of their anger towards us isn't tied to any real subjugation on our part. But, a lot of anti-US feelings are tied to real action we've undertaken. Considering we seem to not know what the hell we're doing in the region, I'd much prefer we back off entirely.

We protect its oil more for the effect on the global economy than our own stores, as we "only" take some 30% from the area. And I don't believe any single entity has to ensure stability in the region. No matter who is in charge of Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, etc., their primary source of revenue is obviously oil. And unless their leadership is extremely self-defeating, they'll continue to cater to the global oil market. I don't see the global economy collapsing if we stop f[b][/b]ucking up the region. And we can still reserve the "right" to take overt action in case of a legitimate invasion from one country upon another. Which has only happened twice (for the oil-producing nations), Iran/Iraq and Iraq/Kuwait. If we'd stop "fine-tuning" the region's governments, a host of excuses/valid reasons for youngsters to despise us would vanish. Picture the US having its government overthrown every 30 years, or our political system influenced regularly by an outside power. Think that would **** us off? It sure would me.

It may take a generation or two, but anti-US resentment would decline, and with it anti-US terrorism. I certainly think we need to track down and kill those who have already attacked us. But we need to think in terms of a chronic solution rather than solely acute solutions. And "making Iraq a democracy" is a faux solution, as a) ME nations are flowing towards democracy anyway, and b) our invasion of Iraq was obviously not predicated on democracy, and everyone knows it.
#25 Jan 13 2005 at 1:31 AM Rating: Default
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Quote:
That's not totally correct. The goal of terrorism is to force a government to change its actions by making the population of that government force that change in order to stop the terrorism. Just change alone isn't that goal. I can guarantee you that there is not a single terrorist organization in the world that thinks that the passing of the patriot act furthers their cause, or sees it as a victory in *any* way


Thank you gbaji. That was very insightful.

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What's actually happening is that Europe is receeding back into Regionalism and Real Politic


And that as well, I had not thought of that.

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but is prevented by those evil globalists who are keeping things stable in the region...Abandon the region and allow it to collapse entirely into war (which it will)


I would howver, pose a question to this. By staying the course, regardless of the motives, and maintaining stability in an area of unrest, might we not just be prolonging the inevitable? If left to its own devices, surely the region would devolve into war, but could that not be a neccesary consequense?

For instance, I reference the American Revolution, (yes I know it's got differences, but for the purpose of simplicity). It took long years of war and bloodshed for the Colonies to emerge victorious over another country that was trying to keep stability in the area (for one reason or another), but in the end, (despite its flaws) the government formed was one of the most stable and most fair to its citizens (idealy anyway)that has been created.

My point being, perhaps by keeping a forced stability in the region we are keeping it in a state of stagnation to where a government cannot be formed.

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Edited, Thu Jan 13 16:15:08 2005 by Pensive
#26 Jan 13 2005 at 6:54 AM Rating: Good
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You both bring up excellent points. After posting, I actually spent quite a bit of time thinking about whether it was morally and realistically better to "stabilize" the region, or to just allow it to do whatever it was going to do.

Honestly, as somewhat of a "take your own chances and accept the consequences" type of person, I can see a strong argument for just letting the chips fall where they may. I do strongly believe that without our meddling, that reqion would have fallen into serious warfare quite a few times in the last 40 years or so.

It's interesting that the fact that Isreal and some Arab nations actually conduct trade is "in spite" of our meddling is brought up. I'd argue the opposite. If we hadn't meddled, Israel would not have existed in the region long enough for that ever to happen. Sure. We didn't directly bring it about, but by preventing the conflicts that would have occured, we allowed it to happen.

And that, ultimately, is the point of that sort of meddling. It's just a fact that the world is no longer so huge that people who don't like eachother can avoid eachother. There *will* be conflicts. It's also true that today (and for the past 50 years at least), there has been a rise in a global economy that *requires* certain things. One of those is that the ME remain reasonably stable.

Sure. On the one side, we could (and perhap even should) have just let those arbitrary nations collapse. Let the unhappy people revolt and take power. See what happens. Maybe it would have been good. But how much time would it have taken? Remember, the US was not relied upon for trade by anyone while we were fighting for independance. Nor, if you look, were any of the notable independance movements we've seen in the last couple hundred years as we've moved out of colonialsim (India is really about the closest I can think of to being a critical disruption, and you'll note that England chose to change its status rather then fight a war). But the ME, especially in the 50s and 60s, was *critical* to the emerging global economy. Alowing a decade or so of the most likely universal civil wars that would have occured would have been disasterous.

Call it simple pragmatism, but the world can't afford for the ME to destablize. One or two wars here or there, sure. But the problems in the ME stem from he fact that the nations established there were somewhat arbitrarily created, and resulted in a mix of people's living in lands they didn't feel any connection to, and with people they didn't think of as countrymen. We would not have had national civil wars. We'd have had tribal warfare in the entire region that would have stretched across all the borders there. Since the western world thinks in terms of dealing with states as entities, this would have had the effect of making any sort of trade or political agrements impossible. Certainly, almost no oil would have been produced or sold while this was going on.

Now the idealist in me says that maybe the long term effect would have been better. Maybe we could have adjusted to the politifal changes in the region and maybe everything would have worked out. But I doubt it would have. Remember that one of the tenants of Globalism is an acceptance of smaller conflicts as a cost to avoid larger ones. In that respect I agree. It's pretty clear that for the last 60 years, even counting in conflicts like Korea and Vietnam, and numerous other smaller conflicts (even all the ones the US was not involved with), the relative body counts and destruction and impact of those conflicts have been smaller then either WW1 or WW2. Heck. In the Civil war alone, 1/5th of the entire US population was killed (and that one was just us).

The inescapable conclusion is that conflicts that have occured since the industrial age cannot be allowed to become "total" conflicts, or massive casualities will occur. Those wars would have been bloody. Very bloody. And they would have affected the entire region, and they would have affected the global economy dramatically. Now, if it were a different region, it might not batter. But the very thing that caused those arbitrary borders to form in the first place, and caused the resentment, affects our decision in this case. Sure. It might be the more "right" thing to sit back and let them kill eachother for a few decades and then deal witho whomever is left when the dust settel (maybe. I'm not convinced of even that), but we literally could not afford to wait that long. The world. Heck. The human race has a relatively narrow window of time to work through the oil age an onto the next (whatever futurist you believe). Allowing a major slowdown of that process right in the middle of that window could have been disasterous. It's about momentum. We have to develop technologies to allow us to be independant of oil (and presumably retain a forward moving technological growth) before we run out of oil. That is a hard fact. How much technological growth occured in the 30 years after WW2? How much more in the 30 after that? How stunted would that growth have been if the world oil supply had been cut by say 50% through the 50s and 60s alone (and IMO, that's a modest estimation of the effect if we hadn't "meddled").

Look at it another way. One way or another, we only need that region stable for another 50 years. Tops. In this case, it makes a lot more sense to forestall conflict and just keep the place as stable as possible until the oil runs out. Then they can kill eachother all they want. Is that selfish? Yes and no. If you look at is and assume it's just capitalistic greed to get as much as pssible before it's gone, then you'll see this as selfish. If you look at it as I do that from a global perspective (heck. A species perspective), we must ensure that those resources are utlized as much as possible to develop tech to move us past oil (rather then sliding back to the world before oil), and do it before we run out. Wasting it on occasional massive conflicts, and regional conflicts in the oil producting areas could have potentially doomed the huan race.


Or maybe I read to many futurists.
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