We keep hearing how close they are to catching Osama bin Laden, even after reports by the Pakistani Government that we're not that close.
Two questions:
1) What do you think the chance is percentage-wise that he's either in possession or we know exactly where he is right now and have know for a good amount of time?
2) What do you think the percentage chance is that he'll be "found" AFTER the election?
For me. I feel like it's 90% chance we've either got him or have known where he is for months. I also think there's a 2% chance he'll be found after the election.
Grady
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I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked, dragging themselves through the negro streets at dawn looking for an angry fix, angelheaded hipsters burning for the ancient heavenly connection to the starry dynamo in the machin ery of night.
I think they know approximately where he is just about all of the time and that he won't be 'captured.'
Better the devil that you know. Besides, he makes a good boogeyman. We need a more horrific replacement in the wings before he's brought in/found dead.
I highly doubt another 'We got him' speech by GWB pre-election. I think it would actually be a bad political move for the GOP to have Bin Laden captured for an election boost.
Better the devil that you know. Besides, he makes a good boogeyman. We need a more horrific replacement in the wings before he's brought in/found dead.
I highly doubt another 'We got him' speech by GWB pre-election. I think it would actually be a bad political move for the GOP to have Bin Laden captured for an election boost.
I think there's a fair chance that he's dead or incapacitated, but we have yet to confirm it.
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
1) What do you think the chance is percentage-wise that he's either in possession or we know exactly where he is right now and have know for a good amount of time?
Zero.
2) What do you think the percentage chance is that he'll be "found" AFTER the election?
Ever?
Pretty good I'd think. On November 3rd, not too likely.
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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.
We do not have him in our possession and if we did it wouldn't be kept as a secret. We have hints as to where he might be, but do not have a lock on his location outside of a general idea that it is {probably) in the Paki-Afgani region.
Totem
Totem
I don't think we have found him yet, but I know how to. Something that is able to survive in caves and is just as hostile and volitale as a terrorist can be...
New York City Sewer Rats.
New York City Sewer Rats.
We do not have him in our possession and if we did it wouldn't be kept as a secret.
Totem, how would you know that? For all we know, Karl Rove may think "capturing" bin Laden before the election is the greatest thing ever. I'm just sayin'...
New York City Sewer Rats.
Hah, reminds me of that show Robin Williams did on Broadway, I think. Y'know, the one with the eye in the backround or on top of the stage?
EDIT-spelling
Edited, Tue Sep 7 16:45:13 2004 by DiscipleOfKain
Totem, how would you know that? For all we know, Karl Rove may think "capturing" bin Laden before the election is the greatest thing ever. I'm just sayin'...
New York City Sewer Rats.
Hah, reminds me of that show Robin Williams did on Broadway, I think. Y'know, the one with the eye in the backround or on top of the stage?
EDIT-spelling
Edited, Tue Sep 7 16:45:13 2004 by DiscipleOfKain
DiscipleOfKain wrote:
We do not have him in our possession and if we did it wouldn't be kept as a secret.
Totem, how would you know that? For all we know, Karl Rove may think "capturing" bin Laden before the election is the greatest thing ever. I'm just sayin'...
Totem, how would you know that? For all we know, Karl Rove may think "capturing" bin Laden before the election is the greatest thing ever. I'm just sayin'...
Because, all conspiracy theories aside, it's extremely rare for a group of people larger then 1 to actually be able to keep any kind of secret. The sheer number of people who would have to be involved makes it pretty impossible for that kind of thing to be kept secret.
It's made even more unlikely given that the likely capturers of OBL are going to be random soldiers rather then some sort of special forces team. You've basically got people running around following various leads. There's a million places he could be. Honestly, the number of things that would have to go exactly right for you to even have the opportunity to capture him without anyone knowing, and keeping him captive without anyone knowing is pretty ridiculous. And for what? Conspiracy theories aside again, there really isn't any percentage is holding off the "capture" of OBL. The administration gets just as much currency regardless of when it happens. Waiting until right before the election just fuels the suggestions that it was timed instead of coincidence. Every day he isn't captured can be interpreted as a failure. If they could have nabbed him a year ago, they would have done so. The benefits for delaying are so minor, and the penalties for delaying so great, that there's really no percentage in it.
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Conspiracy theories aside again, there really isn't any percentage is holding off the "capture" of OBL. The administration gets just as much currency regardless of when it happens.
This is where you're wrong. There may be as much currency (i.e., public approval or "bounce"), but that currency is spent very quickly. Public opinion is notoriously fickle, and the closer to election day the better to maximize the effect.
For the rest, you may be right. Unless there were a Special Forces squad that caught him with specific orders to contain him and keep it quiet, it would be very hard to control the information getting out about it. That's why I think we don't know where he is, or even whether he's still alive.
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
I think it's very likely we know approximately where he is. Gbaj stated correctly that it's extremely rare for a group of people to be able to keep a secret.
Osama's Dilemna: To operate a terrorist network and stage successful attacks on multiple countries around the world, but most especially the USA without being captured.
Osama Hunters Dilemna: To locate Osama.
Given the resources available to each side of the equation, I'd say that Osama's general location is probably a known factor in the highest of circles.
Keep in mind, that the 'secret' for both sides of the equation is essentially the same. Plausible denial is much easier for the hunters. After all, if they WANT to lose him, they can, assuming his location isn't static. And they can give out partial information, such as that we think he's somewhere around the border of Pakistan and actually seem encouraging without having really told anyone anything.
Osama's Dilemna: To operate a terrorist network and stage successful attacks on multiple countries around the world, but most especially the USA without being captured.
Osama Hunters Dilemna: To locate Osama.
Given the resources available to each side of the equation, I'd say that Osama's general location is probably a known factor in the highest of circles.
Keep in mind, that the 'secret' for both sides of the equation is essentially the same. Plausible denial is much easier for the hunters. After all, if they WANT to lose him, they can, assuming his location isn't static. And they can give out partial information, such as that we think he's somewhere around the border of Pakistan and actually seem encouraging without having really told anyone anything.
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1) What do you think the chance is percentage-wise that he's either in possession or we know exactly where he is right now and have know for a good amount of time?
Somewhere close to zero
Quote:
2) What do you think the percentage chance is that he'll be "found" AFTER the election?
I don't think he will ever be captured. I highly doubt he is still in the middle east. He is probally somewhere in Canada having a good time. I don't think he is dumb enough to be still in the Middle east.
I think it's kinda funny. Even if we did find him today.. We probably wouldnt hear about it because every Democrat chasing the black helicopters would cry foul. American politics are silly.
I expect him to be caught just before Halloween.
19 posts
He was caught about 5 months ago. They are keeping him in deep freeze until 1 week before the election.
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Pretty good I'd think. On November 3rd, not too likely.
Still, it would make for a hell of a birthday present for me (11/3/63) if we did catch the rat *******...yes, I know, I'm old...
'Lo, there do I see, the line of my people, back to the beginning, 'lo do they call to me, they bid me take my place among them, in the halls of Valhalla, where the brave...may live...forever.
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And delusional
Well, that goes without saying, but what's your point?
I said it would be nice to have, not that it's gonna happen.
'Lo, there do I see, the line of my people, back to the beginning, 'lo do they call to me, they bid me take my place among them, in the halls of Valhalla, where the brave...may live...forever.
X-Box 360 Gamer Tag - Smogster
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Because, all conspiracy theories aside, it's extremely rare for a group of people larger then 1 to actually be able to keep any kind of secret.
Yeah that prison scandal got out right away.
The Manhattan Project was common knowledge.
Everyone knew we had Stealth Fighters in the 70's.
Keeping a secret really isn't very challenging, particularly for the military.
Disclaimer:
To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.
To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.
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