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#27 Mar 22 2004 at 4:01 AM Rating: Decent
Quote:
Cato's a right wing free markets at all costs thinktank.


Right wing? Can you explain the following then?

http://www.cato.org/dailys/03-22-04.html

http://www.cato.org/pressroom/headlines/headlines.html

http://www.cato.org/research/articles/barnett-031219.html

http://www.cato.org/research/articles/barnett-031219.html

http://www.cato.org/dailys/10-03-03.html

http://www.cato.org/pubs/legalbriefs/hiibelvsnevada.pdf

http://www.cato.org/pubs/legalbriefs/garnervtexas.pdf
#28 Mar 22 2004 at 10:28 AM Rating: Decent
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Gee, I didn't realize that wanting to enforece the CONSTITUTION was a left wing only activity.

Good to know. Right wing doesn't equal facist.
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Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#29 Mar 22 2004 at 11:34 AM Rating: Decent
Quote:
Gee, I didn't realize that wanting to enforece the CONSTITUTION was a left wing only activity.


Last time I checked enforcing the Constitution was neither a right wing nor left wing activity. Both Demicans and Republicrats are pretty equal in terms of ignoring it whenever it suits them.
#30 Mar 22 2004 at 6:49 PM Rating: Good
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Smasharoo wrote:

Actually I used it as proof that outsourcing was happening to high elvel tech jobs at all. If you recall you asserted that it never happened, wasn't happeneing, and was unlikely to happen. Learn how to read.



Um... No. You started with the statement that 10 million programmer jobs had been outsourced to India. You then went on to insist that our economy was going to hell in a handbasket because we were losing zillions of high skilled labor to other countries (ok. I added the "zillions" bit in there, but that's close enough). You then proceeded to *attempt* to support your claim, but were basically smacked around by this pesky thing called facts at every turn, until basically the only support you could show for your argument was an article about some IBM jobs that "might" be outsourced, "maybe" outside the country, but that couldn't be confirmed and came from an unknown source.


I then said that jobs outsourced to other countries were "mostly" low skilled labor. Not "entirely" low skilled. Not "zero high skilled". I said "mostly only low skilled" labor was outsourced to other countries. I then used the aformentioned facts and figures on *real* outsourcing data (not articles guessing about what might happen) to support my position. Yeah. I know... Using actual facts to support yourself. That's just crazy talk!


See the problem I had with your post was that you used the classic bait and switch. It goes something like this:

1. Show article/data talking about the rise of outsourcing, including a very large number of "total jobs outsourced"

2. Show another article talking about outsourcing to other countries.

3. Show some article or other talking about some specific high tech high skilled jobs being outsourced to other countries.

4. Conclude that some arbitrarily high amount of high skilled jobs were being outsourced and draw some sort of doomsday scenario based on that.


See. Descarte would laugh at that logic becuase it's false. You need to show that all jobs being outsourced (your first number) are being outsourced to other nations (they aren't). You then need to show that all jobs being outsourced to other nations are going to India. You then need to show that all jobs being ourtsourced to India are made up of these high skilled jobs you are talking about. If you don't do that, you can't draw the conclusions you made from the data you have. That's logic.


You failed to do that. I merely pointed out that not only was there no correlation between the total number of jobs "outsourced" to what you claimed (10 million programmer jobs outsourced to India). But that the job types you were most ******** about made up no more then a tiny fraction of the total jobs outsourced outside the country (hence supporting my statement that "most" jobs outsourced to other countries were low skill jobs).


See... That's logic. You're approach is normally referred to as fearmongering. I hope you can understand the difference.



Edited, Mon Mar 22 18:51:33 2004 by gbaji
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#31 Mar 22 2004 at 7:52 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
Um... No. You started with the statement that 10 million programmer jobs had been outsourced to India.

I did indeed. I didn't use that article as proof of that fact however.

Pull the quote and take a look.

Oh wait, that would throw facts into the equation as opposed to just your memory of them where you never make mistakes ever.

Can't have that now, can we?

Quote:

You then went on to insist that our economy was going to hell in a handbasket because we were losing zillions of high skilled labor to other countries (ok. I added the "zillions" bit in there, but that's close enough).

Wrong again, idiot.

I said that I couldn't wait untill your job was taken by abu in Bangalore so you could have some perspective that finacial sucess in this country is often times a matter of simple timing and not of merit. You countered by arguing that companies wouldn't outsource IT to India saving themselves billions because they wanted someone nearby when the **** hit the fan.

Our economy is going to hell because this administration hasn't the vaguest idea of how to manage it.


Quote:

You then proceeded to *attempt* to support your claim, but were basically smacked around by this pesky thing called facts at every turn, until basically the only support you could show for your argument was an article about some IBM jobs that "might" be outsourced, "maybe" outside the country, but that couldn't be confirmed and came from an unknown source.

Pull the quotes in question or your just talking out of your ***. Your imaginary freinds may all agree that the discussion was exactly that, but unfortunately, the rest of us residing in the real world generaly rely on actual facts. Particularly when they're redily attainable.

Quote:

I then said that jobs outsourced to other countries were "mostly" low skilled labor. Not "entirely" low skilled. Not "zero high skilled". I said "mostly only low skilled" labor was outsourced to other countries. I then used the aformentioned facts and figures on *real* outsourcing data (not articles guessing about what might happen) to support my position. Yeah. I know... Using actual facts to support yourself. That's just crazy talk!

No, you didn't.

Gee this is easy. We can both just make stuff up whenever we want without using any facts at all.

Fun.

Then you went on to say how you liked to rape old women with telephone polls while cutting your genitals off a rusty butterknife.

I countered that I didn't think that was such a good idea, based on factual medical data.

You then told me that "doctors don't really exist they're all part of the alien conspiracy to probe my ***" at which point I stopped posting on that topic.


Quote:

See the problem I had with your post was that you used the classic bait and switch. It goes something like this:


See the problem I have with this post is that you used the classic "make **** up as you go along".

Quote:

1. Show article/data talking about the rise of outsourcing, including a very large number of "total jobs outsourced"

1. Refrence previous discussion without quoting any of it thereby simply creating any imaginary fantasy world you like.

Quote:

2. Show another article talking about outsourcing to other countries.

2. In said fantasy world ignore repeated errors, ommisions, contradictions, and lies you posted.

Quote:

3. Show some article or other talking about some specific high tech high skilled jobs being outsourced to other countries.

3. Manufacture in summary form what you assumed I was arguing without actually bothering to read or comprehend it.

Quote:

4. Conclude that some arbitrarily high amount of high skilled jobs were being outsourced and draw some sort of doomsday scenario based on that.

4. Conclude that you have proven something by saying the effect of "because I said so" without using any facts, quotes, or actuall events.

Quote:

See. Descarte would laugh at that logic becuase it's false. You need to show that all jobs being outsourced (your first number) are being outsourced to other nations (they aren't). You then need to show that all jobs being outsourced to other nations are going to India. You then need to show that all jobs being ourtsourced to India are made up of these high skilled jobs you are talking about. If you don't do that, you can't draw the conclusions you made from the data you have. That's logic.

It's not logic if the "conclusions I made" are imaginary ones you dreamed up mid old woman telephone pole *******.

You see, the basis of logic is fact. By far the most amusing thing about this entire post of yours is that you've made an argument in favor of logic without actually using any.

Ahh, to laugh. Thank you once again for something I can print out and show to freinds.


Quote:

You failed to do that. I merely pointed out that not only was there no correlation between the total number of jobs "outsourced" to what you claimed (10 million programmer jobs outsourced to India). But that the job types you were most ******** about made up no more then a tiny fraction of the total jobs outsourced outside the country (hence supporting my statement that "most" jobs outsourced to other countries were low skill jobs).


And then, the good which of debate came and tapped you on the head with a magic wand and said "don't worry, you're right again! You're allways right!" I imagine that happens to you quite a bit, seeing as you're never wrong, never make mistakes, and have succeeded in life much like a Horatio Alger hero through luck, pluck and virtue.

Quote:

See... That's logic. You're approach is normally referred to as fearmongering.

I'll keep that in mind when you're collecting severance pay because Abu took your job. Not that you'd ever in fifty billion years have the werewithall to post that you'd lost it.

Being a massive coward and all.

You know. I think I've finnally figured it out.

Cowardice defines you.

It's taken me quite a while to reach this conclusion, but I've just had the epiffany.

It's not that you're stupid. It's not that you're uneducated. It's not that you're self centered.
I mean don't get me wrong, you're all of thos things, but..

They're not the defining nature of your character. Lots of people are stupid and uneducated and self centered and are still able to have a fairly reasonable discource.

Cowards can't though. Cowards can't ever admit to being wrong. Cowards can't ever actually take a position without qualifying endlessly. Cowards can't ever put themselves on the line by predicting what they expect to happen.

It's you perfectly.

You ignore every time (and they are liegon) you are QED prima facie, inescabily proven to be dead wrong. If it's on a simple factual error you'll continue to post but utterly igore the error pretending it doesn't exist. If it's on a larger topic you'll simply stop posting and pretend the topic never existed.

It must make you insufferable to work with I imagine. Allthough you should see a fair amount of sucess in the buisness world, as lying, taking credit for things you haven't actually done, and never taking responsiblity for anything are highly valued there.

Untill Abu takes you job that is :-)

Good luck sport, you'll need it.
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Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#32 Mar 22 2004 at 7:56 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:

Last time I checked enforcing the Constitution was neither a right wing nor left wing activity. Both Demicans and Republicrats are pretty equal in terms of ignoring it whenever it suits them.

So CATO arguing to enforce it makes them not a right wing group WHY EXACTLY?

You're the one who's making the case for that, not me.
____________________________
Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#33 Mar 22 2004 at 9:12 PM Rating: Good
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Lol! Um... Sure. Let's look at the quotes. In fact, I'll provide the link to the thread in question so everyone can follow along:


https://everquest.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=4&mid=1074100352739489090&page=2


Here's the relevant bits:


Smasharoo wrote:


Then let me know when you lose your job to Abu in Calcutta who can adminster your companies UNIX network remotely for 12 cents an hour so I can laugh at you.



I reply:

gbaji wrote:

If Abu can do my job as well as I can and can do it for much less, then there's no reason why the company I work for shouldn't hire him. Not surprising, it's the low or unskilled labor that moves outside the country. Skilled jobs tend not to do that.


Note. I did not say "no skilled jobs ever get outsourced to other countries". I said they "tend not to do that". That's not the same thing. It's not even close.

I added (for emphasis) in the same post:

gbaji wrote:

Trust me. We have a lot of Abu's and Rameshes here. They expect to get paid just as much as their US counterparts.


In other words, there are still a heck of a lot of jobs that need to be done inside our country (for any of a number of reasons). We hire tons of folks from other countries to work *in the US*! They get paid just as much as their US counterparts. Um... That would seem to imply that our problem is a lack of the correct skillsets in our US labor pool. Which was the point I was making. It's just not that hard to make some interesting conclusions from that fact alone...

And here's the kicker:

Smasharoo wrote:

Yeah, those 14 million software development jobs that were moved to India don't count, naturally.

http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/news/Research_Report_Fall_2003.pdf

Sometimes the amazing thing is that I think you actually BELIEVE that it soemthing doens't happen to you personally, it's not happeneing to anyone.



Ok. If that bogus figure and bogus link were not intended to be support for your argument, then what the hell were they? Just random trash pulled out of your butt? C'mon Smash. Claiming that you weren't trying to "prove" something with that garbage is pretty lame really. You just hoped that no one would call you on the facts. I did. You got whacked. Just accept it...

I invite everyone to read the thread from that point to see just how desperately moronic Smash appears as he attempt to defend his position. It's amusing and sad at the same time.



Smasharoo wrote:
Quote:
Um... No. You started with the statement that 10 million programmer jobs had been outsourced to India.

I did indeed. I didn't use that article as proof of that fact however.

Pull the quote and take a look.


There I have. Again. How on earth can anyone assume you *weren't* using that article as "proof" of what you were saying? I call BS on you Smash.

Smasharoo wrote:
Oh wait, that would throw facts into the equation as opposed to just your memory of them where you never make mistakes ever.


Once again. My memory is apparently vastly superior to yours.

Smasharoo wrote:
Quote:
You then went on to insist that our economy was going to hell in a handbasket because we were losing zillions of high skilled labor to other countries (ok. I added the "zillions" bit in there, but that's close enough).

Wrong again, idiot.

I said that I couldn't wait untill your job was taken by abu in Bangalore so you could have some perspective that finacial sucess in this country is often times a matter of simple timing and not of merit. You countered by arguing that companies wouldn't outsource IT to India saving themselves billions because they wanted someone nearby when the **** hit the fan.


Um... Sure. You pulled a made up (sky is falling) figure out of your butt, and attempted to imply that based on that figure that I should be scared that my job could be outsourced to India at any moment. I responded with the relatively reasonable assertion that the specifics of my job make it unlikely that that will happen (not impossible, just unlikely). I still stand by that assertion.


Smasharoo wrote:
Quote:
You then proceeded to *attempt* to support your claim, but were basically smacked around by this pesky thing called facts at every turn, until basically the only support you could show for your argument was an article about some IBM jobs that "might" be outsourced, "maybe" outside the country, but that couldn't be confirmed and came from an unknown source.

Pull the quotes in question or your just talking out of your ***. Your imaginary freinds may all agree that the discussion was exactly that, but unfortunately, the rest of us residing in the real world generaly rely on actual facts. Particularly when they're redily attainable.


Sure. It's all there in that thread. Somewhere near the end, you pull an article out about jobs lost in IBM. Of course, when one actually reads the article, it's jobs that *may be* lost, and it's unconfirmed, and from an unnamed source. But I guess innuendo and "might happens" are more important then actual data, right?


And the rest of your post is just you spouting off. Nice and colorful, but pointless.


EDIT: Just wanted to add something. I did make one mistake. I wrote down 10 million, when you were actually claiming 14 million... My bad.

Oh. One more thing. Upon re-reading the thread, I found this gem:

Smasharoo wrote:
The Wall Street Journal (which is subscription only or I'd post it) had an article on Monday about IBM plans to move jobs that cost them "56 Dollars per hour in the US" to India where they will cost "12 Dollars per hour".



Heh. So... The WSJ is a legitimate source for information about jobs being outsourced, but is a Republican propoganda source when it mentions that maybe all that oursourcing isn't really as extreme as we thought it was. I don't know about you guys, but I'm incredibly amused by this. We need any more evidence that Smash just kinda makes stuff up as he goes along?

Edited, Mon Mar 22 23:01:51 2004 by gbaji
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#34 Mar 22 2004 at 11:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:

gbaji wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If Abu can do my job as well as I can and can do it for much less, then there's no reason why the company I work for shouldn't hire him. Not surprising, it's the low or unskilled labor that moves outside the country. Skilled jobs tend not to do that.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Note. I did not say "no skilled jobs ever get outsourced to other countries". I said they "tend not to do that". That's not the same thing. It's not even close.

True. Right after you said "it's the low or unskilled labor that moves out of the country".

Not, by the way:

"I then said that jobs outsourced to other countries were "mostly" low skilled labor. Not "entirely" low skilled. Not "zero high skilled". I said "mostly only low skilled" labor was outsourced to other countries."

You said "it's the low or unskilled labor that moves out of the country" you "tend" comment refrences this:

"If Abu can do my job as well as I can and can do it for much less, then there's no reason why the company I work for shouldn't hire him."

So, in reality, you said skilled jobs tend not be ones that Abu can do. Or your grammar is screwed. Either way.

Quote:

Note. I did not say "no skilled jobs ever get outsourced to other countries". I said they "tend not to do that". That's not the same thing. It's not even close.

No, you said they tend not to be jobs abu in bangalore can do. You siad low skilled jobs moved out of the country. Without qualification. You didn't say "mostly low skilled jobs" or "the vast majority of jobs are low skilled". You didn't qualify in any way. Keep ************ though.



Quote:

I added (for emphasis) in the same post:


gbaji wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trust me. We have a lot of Abu's and Rameshes here. They expect to get paid just as much as their US counterparts.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Indeed. Emphasis that no skilled jobs were moving out of the country because if abu in bangalore could do the job he'd come here. You're sort of proving my point here. Perhaps you're just bad at communicating and you were thinking that mostly low skilled jobs moved overseas, but that's not what you said. Barring the sudden onset of psychic abilitites it's impossible for anyone to infer it's what you meant.


Quote:

In other words, there are still a heck of a lot of jobs that need to be done inside our country (for any of a number of reasons). We hire tons of folks from other countries to work *in the US*! They get paid just as much as their US counterparts. Um... That would seem to imply that our problem is a lack of the correct skillsets in our US labor pool. Which was the point I was making. It's just not that hard to make some interesting conclusions from that fact alone...

No, the point you were making is that no skilled jobs move overseas. Like I said. /shrug.

Quote:

And here's the kicker:


Smasharoo wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah, those 14 million software development jobs that were moved to India don't count, naturally.

http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/news/Research_Report_Fall_2003.pdf

Sometimes the amazing thing is that I think you actually BELIEVE that it soemthing doens't happen to you personally, it's not happeneing to anyone.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Ok. If that bogus figure and bogus link were not intended to be support for your argument, then what the hell were they? Just random trash pulled out of your butt? C'mon Smash. Claiming that you weren't trying to "prove" something with that garbage is pretty lame really. You just hoped that no one would call you on the facts. I did. You got whacked. Just accept it...

I invite everyone to read the thread from that point to see just how desperately moronic Smash appears as he attempt to defend his position. It's amusing and sad at the same time.

Yes, read the thread. The best part is where I post:

"Hadn't read this thread untill now. I was mistaken about the number of IT jobs lost offshore. I should have posted "14 million jobs at risk of being sent to india". There've only been a mere 1 million IT jobs outsourced so far. Insignifigant, I guess. Onlly a million jobs."

Where I examined the facts, realized I had made an error, and corrected it.

Quote:

Smasharoo wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Um... No. You started with the statement that 10 million programmer jobs had been outsourced to India.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I did indeed. I didn't use that article as proof of that fact however.

Pull the quote and take a look.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



There I have. Again. How on earth can anyone assume you *weren't* using that article as "proof" of what you were saying? I call BS on you Smash.

Um yeah. I guess I should have clarified that. You are quite correct, I did use it as proof. However, when I realized it was innacurrate, I posted that I had made a mistake and provided alterante sources of data to substantiate my argument. You have me...you've proved I was wrong in a thread where I...posted that I was wrong.

Congradulations?

Quote:

Um... Sure. You pulled a made up (sky is falling) figure out of your butt, and attempted to imply that based on that figure that I should be scared that my job could be outsourced to India at any moment. I responded with the relatively reasonable assertion that the specifics of my job make it unlikely that that will happen (not impossible, just unlikely). I still stand by that assertion

No. I didn't read an article carefully enough and when I realized my mistake I said "oops, I made a mistake, here's a diffrent source". And no, you didn't say unlikely, you said simply that low skilled jobs go overseas. It's ok, you made a mistake. People do it all the time. Look, I did it twice about the same silly article.

Quote:

Sure. It's all there in that thread. Somewhere near the end, you pull an article out about jobs lost in IBM. Of course, when one actually reads the article, it's jobs that *may be* lost, and it's unconfirmed, and from an unnamed source. But I guess innuendo and "might happens" are more important then actual data, right?

No they're not. That's why when I realized my mistake I acknowledged it. Novel concept, isn't it?

Quote:

And the rest of your post is just you spouting off. Nice and colorful, but pointless.

Coward response 101: Ignore any accurate critizisms of self at ALL COSTS!!!


Quote:

Oh. One more thing. Upon re-reading the thread, I found this gem:


Smasharoo wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Wall Street Journal (which is subscription only or I'd post it) had an article on Monday about IBM plans to move jobs that cost them "56 Dollars per hour in the US" to India where they will cost "12 Dollars per hour".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Heh. So... The WSJ is a legitimate source for information about jobs being outsourced, but is a Republican propoganda source when it mentions that maybe all that oursourcing isn't really as extreme as we thought it was. I don't know about you guys, but I'm incredibly amused by this. We need any more evidence that Smash just kinda makes stuff up as he goes along?

One was a news article, one was editorial content. Diffrent things. Reading is Fundemental. That's why earlier in this very thread I said:

"People in business read it to read about news in the business world, not for the editorial content."

News, editorial content. Not the same.

Do we need any more evidence that when I make a mistake I post "hey, I made a mistake?"

Do we need any more evidence that when you make a mistake you don't? You desperately try to cobble together something that fits your claims from the actual reality?

Also, wake up. No one reads our discussions but you and I. We might as well be on the phone. No one's going to read either of our posts and say "gee, Smash makes stuff up...um and then says "Hang on, that was wrong" Alternately no one's going to read it and say "Boy Gabji really is a coward. Smash nailed him dead on."

Because no one's going to read it, period.
____________________________
Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#35 Mar 23 2004 at 12:48 AM Rating: Decent
Quote:
So CATO arguing to enforce it makes them not a right wing group WHY EXACTLY?


So you are stating that right wingers want to enforce the Constitution and left wingers don't? Or perhaps you are stating that both sides are for enforcing the Constitution? Smiley: laugh

The last time I checked the right wing was not opposed to the Patriot Act, the war in Iraq, the war on drugs, the laws in Texas that forbade homosexual sex, the detainees in Cuba, the vigorous methods used by law enforcement that Cato opposes, censorship of media (movies, television & radio), military involvement in domestic law enforcement, etc...

If you want to label Cato then at least be honest and call them libertarian. Funny how that just so happens to be closer politically than either of the two major parties to what most of our founding fathers believed as well.
#36 Mar 23 2004 at 1:42 AM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
So you are stating that right wingers want to enforce the Constitution and left wingers don't? Or perhaps you are stating that both sides are for enforcing the Constitution?

I'm stating that enforcing the Constitution is an end in itself removed from politics.

Quote:

The last time I checked the right wing was not opposed to the Patriot Act, the war in Iraq, the war on drugs, the laws in Texas that forbade homosexual sex, the detainees in Cuba, the vigorous methods used by law enforcement that Cato opposes, censorship of media (movies, television & radio), military involvement in domestic law enforcement, etc...

I'm not so sure about the Patriot Act part of that. It depends how you define "right wing" I guess. Here's what I mean when I say it "Capitalist in the extreme with the belief that government should be as small as possible, providing little to no regluation on industry and little to no services to the public allowing taxation to be at a minnimum."

The things you mention are certainly another valid definition and I've been guilty myself of thinking of the Christian Right as right wing, and of course they are, but they're really they're own little indpendant group. I don't think CATO or the WSJ are right wing in the "prayer in schools, burn Catcher int he Rye" sense of the term.

Quote:

If you want to label Cato then at least be honest and call them libertarian. Funny how that just so happens to be closer politically than either of the two major parties to what most of our founding fathers believed as well.

Sure, but realize that libertarianism is economically a very right wing affair. As to what our founding fathers believed, it's 1)Completely irrelevant, and 2)Unknowable. By all appearences our founding fathers thought it was a good idea to own slaves, that they were the equivilent of 3/5 of a person, that slaughtering Native American's was a spiffy idea, that women shouldn't be allowed to vote and that the Turkey would be a good choice for the National Bird. I'm fairly certain libertarians don't advocate much of that platform.
____________________________
Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#37 Mar 23 2004 at 7:28 AM Rating: Decent
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5,372 posts
Quote:
"The value of U.S. exports of legal work, computer programming, telecommunications, banking, engineering, management consulting and other private services jumped to $131.01 billion in 2003, up $8.42 billion from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported Friday."


This is kind of misleading anyway, this is just describing the nature of multi-national professional service organisations. For example a multi-national corporation based out of South American wants to do a global IT implementation. They will likely employ a multi-national IT Consultancy, say IBM/Accenture, and the purchasing of the entire project is most likely to be from the US branch of the consultancy (as the US branch is most able to do things at that scale).

So the revenue for the entire project is recorded in the US at US rates. The US exports this massive global consultancy project which shows up in the figures above. This DOES NOT mean that the majority of the work is done in the US, far from it. In a typical engagement like this, such companies have a core team, probably based in the US, supported by specialist teams in each country they plan to implement. Plus it is becoming more and more the model within the consultancy industry that a large part of the actual work for the above project will occur where it is cheapest to do so (the consultancy leverages it's global reach to make the highest margin), and this really does mean having a team of programmers in Bangalore (or wherever) to take the functional specs and build the functionality.

The money coming in is at US rates. A lot of the work done is at Bangalore rates. So for this project, the export of consultancy from the US >>> than the import of consultancy from Bangalore, purely because of the margin made on the difference in rates. But the majority of the work is done in Bangalore.

I work for an IT consultancy and negotiate and set up such deals. This is exactly how we try to do things, and it is becoming a lot more common. Our own IT support desk is based in Bangalore.

Obviously I still have a job though, and I am not that worried about losing it to this, as there are softer, relationship building skills required to sell work which is my career path. There are many organisations that will not outsource outside of the UK - government organisations for example, or companies that operate mainly in UK, and are not truely multi-national.

However, if I was a techie or programmer, I would be more worried. As a firm we do maintain these skill-sets in the UK, but this is where redundancies are most likely these days.
#38 Mar 23 2004 at 11:46 AM Rating: Decent
Smasharoo said:

Quote:
As to what our founding fathers believed, it's 1)Completely irrelevant, and 2)Unknowable.


And yet in another thread he said:

Quote:
That's right. I'm a New England Liberal. You know, like the majority of the Founding Fathers were.


The following quote is from Cato:

Quote:
How to Label Cato
Today, those who subscribe to the principles of the American Revolution--individual liberty, limited government, the free market, and the rule of law--call themselves by a variety of terms, including conservative, libertarian, classical liberal, and liberal. We see problems with all of those terms. "Conservative" smacks of an unwillingness to change, of a desire to preserve the status quo. Only in America do people seem to refer to free-market capitalism--the most progressive, dynamic, and ever-changing system the world has ever known--as conservative. Additionally, many contemporary American conservatives favor state intervention in some areas, most notably in trade and into our private lives.

"Classical liberal" is a bit closer to the mark, but the word "classical" connotes a backward-looking philosophy.

Finally, "liberal" may well be the perfect word in most of the world--the liberals in societies from China to Iran to South Africa to Argentina are supporters of human rights and free markets--but its meaning has clearly been corrupted by contemporary American liberals.

The Jeffersonian philosophy that animates Cato's work has increasingly come to be called "libertarianism" or "market liberalism." It combines an appreciation for entrepreneurship, the market process, and lower taxes with strict respect for civil liberties and skepticism about the benefits of both the welfare state and foreign military adventurism.

The market-liberal vision brings the wisdom of the American Founders to bear on the problems of today. As did the Founders, it looks to the future with optimism and excitement, eager to discover what great things women and men will do in the coming century. Market liberals appreciate the complexity of a great society, they recognize that socialism and government planning are just too clumsy for the modern world. It is--or used to be--the conventional wisdom that a more complex society needs more government, but the truth is just the opposite. The simpler the society, the less damage government planning does. Planning is cumbersome in an agricultural society, costly in an industrial economy, and impossible in the information age. Today collectivism and planning are outmoded and backward, a drag on social progress.

Market liberals have a cosmopolitan, inclusive vision for society. We reject the bashing of gays, Japan, rich people, and immigrants that contemporary liberals and conservatives seem to think addresses society's problems. We applaud the liberation of blacks and women from the statist restrictions that for so long kept them out of the economic mainstream. Our greatest challenge today is to extend the promise of political freedom and economic opportunity to those who are still denied it, in our own country and around the world.



I don't see anything in the above description that would lead me to refer to Cato as right or left wing since they side with both factions on a variety of issues. The only thing that they are consistent on is upholding the Constitution the way it was written. It is too bad we have very few leaders today that would do the same.
#39 Mar 23 2004 at 12:52 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
I don't see anything in the above description that would lead me to refer to Cato as right or left wing since they side with both factions on a variety of issues. The only thing that they are consistent on is upholding the Constitution the way it was written. It is too bad we have very few leaders today that would do the same.

You know, this would have been a lot easier if you had just stated from the outset that you were a Libertarian whacko. Ok, have it your way. Cato is a whacko Libertarian thinktank who adovocates for total free markets, unlimited weapons ownership by private citizens and the abolishment of welfare, social security and income tax.

In short they are advocates of the perfect philosophy for diseffected internet geeks around the country who long endlessly to share a political ideology that they believe is at once simple and superior to those offered by either prevailing party all the while ignoring the fact that such a philosophy is so grossly unappliable in a modern society that they can only adress certain specefic issues peicemeal to avoid the obvious implication that the whole package if taken together is a radical fantasy not dissimilar from social Darwinism.

That better?
____________________________
Disclaimer:

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#40 Mar 23 2004 at 4:09 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
all the while ignoring the fact that such a philosophy is so grossly unappliable in a modern society


You have proof that it is unappliable in a modern society?
#41 Mar 23 2004 at 7:19 PM Rating: Good
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Oh god...

Let's get this straight Smash.

Smasharoo wrote:
Quote:

Not surprising, it's the low or unskilled labor that moves outside the country. Skilled jobs tend not to do that.

True. Right after you said "it's the low or unskilled labor that moves out of the country".

Not, by the way:

"I then said that jobs outsourced to other countries were "mostly" low skilled labor. Not "entirely" low skilled. Not "zero high skilled". I said "mostly only low skilled" labor was outsourced to other countries."

You said "it's the low or unskilled labor that moves out of the country" you "tend" comment refrences this:

"If Abu can do my job as well as I can and can do it for much less, then there's no reason why the company I work for shouldn't hire him."

So, in reality, you said skilled jobs tend not be ones that Abu can do. Or your grammar is screwed. Either way.


So you're basically arguing a point purely because you can't seem to read in context.

Also. You seem to be completely unaware of what an anticedent is. It's not my grammar that is bad Smash. It's your reading comprehension.


The statement "it's the low or unskilled labor that moves outside the country." is not an absolute. It does not make any statement at all about skilled labor. Get that? It's talking about the fact that low and unskilled labor gets outsourced outside the country. Nothing else. Now there's an assumed comparison in that statement, and most reasonably qualified readers of the English language would be looking for it...

The next statement: "Skilled jobs tend not to do that." refers back to the previous sentence (wow! amazing...). "low and unskilled jobs move outside the country. Skilled jobs tend not to do that". See! Where you are getting the bizare notion that that sentence is talking about whether Abu can do my job is beyond me. A first grader can read and understand that paragraph Smash. You are either a total moron, or you are deliberately misreading that paragraph in an attempt to make a strawman out of the argument (ie: arguing the sematics of your incorrect interpretation of my statement, rather then the obvious and correct one).


And yet, even after reclarifying the statement 50 freaking times, you still argue it. If it makes you feel better, go ahead and insert the word "mostly" in that sentance so it reads:

It is mostly the low and unskilled jobs that move outside the country.


There? are you happy? Look. You may get your jollies off of deliberately misinterpreting other people's statements and arguing them based on that, but it doesn't help you prove any point other then that you are unwilling to actually argue the point. Anyone reading that paragraph ould tell what I was saying. Except you. Why is that Smash? Did you flunk your English classes that badly? Sheesh man. You really need to lay off the strawman bit. It's getting very very old...


Next three quotes and responses deleted because they're just Smash repeating his stupid strawman arguement over and over. Get off this horse Smash. If you misunderstood what I was saying, the dozen times I clarified the statement should have given you a hint...


Smasharoo wrote:
Yes, read the thread. The best part is where I post:

"Hadn't read this thread untill now. I was mistaken about the number of IT jobs lost offshore. I should have posted "14 million jobs at risk of being sent to india". There've only been a mere 1 million IT jobs outsourced so far. Insignifigant, I guess. Onlly a million jobs."

Where I examined the facts, realized I had made an error, and corrected it.


Um... Ok. Fine. However, my point here isn't whether you corrected yourself, but that you did so *twice* and in each gave ground on your argument until there wasn't anything left.

See. You started by stating 14 million jobs were outsourced to India. Then, only after myself and several others looked through your own quoted source, you corrected it and said 1 million jobs. But wait! It gets better...



Quote:
Um yeah. I guess I should have clarified that. You are quite correct, I did use it as proof. However, when I realized it was innacurrate, I posted that I had made a mistake and provided alterante sources of data to substantiate my argument. You have me...you've proved I was wrong in a thread where I...posted that I was wrong.

Congradulations?


Sure. Um... Except that your statement about requireing that I provide a quote and proof was in *this* thread. Not in the other. What I'm pointing out here is a pattern of you making claims with no proof, yet requiring proof from others for every little thing.

Sure. You'll occasionally write that you admit you are wrong. But you never let that change your view. That's what's amazing about you Smash. Here you are months later, arguing the same point again, with apparently no memory of what happend the last time you argued it. Heck. Even to the point of refusing to believe that you'd been proven wrong until I pulled the old thread out again. Even to the point of denying ever making a claim you made in the thread until I pulled it out and proved it to you... again.

You just don't learn from your own mistakes do you? When are you going to accept that the "outsourcing threat" is nothing more then a buch of Dem party rhetoric designed to scare the working folks into voting for them instead of the Reps?

Quote:
No. I didn't read an article carefully enough and when I realized my mistake I said "oops, I made a mistake, here's a diffrent source". And no, you didn't say unlikely, you said simply that low skilled jobs go overseas. It's ok, you made a mistake. People do it all the time. Look, I did it twice about the same silly article.


Yes. Twice. It's nice that you at least recognize that. Because later in the same thread, after you "correct yourself" from a 14 million figure to a 1 million figure, once again, myself and others scan through the same article and realize that the 1 million number is wrong as well.

What this does is seriously call into question your ability to read any source and make any reasonable argument based on it. Most people, after being called on a mistake, would actually look really carefully when revising their statement to make sure they aren't making yet another mistake. But you didn't. You pulled out the next big sounding number you could find and insisted that that was the real number of outsourced IT jobs. It turned out to be wrong as well...


And when we pointed that one out, you couldn't actually bring yourself to accept that maybe outsourcing to other countries isn't really as big a threat to the US as you originally though. Oh no! Can't do that... Nope. You then pulled out a new article about IBM employees being outsourced. Um... but now the number shrunk from 14 million, to 1 million, and down to a few thousand. Heh. Of course, those were a few thousand that "might" be oursourced. You still could never actually come up with any actual numbers of jobs that really were outsourced to India. Not once in the entire thread did you do that...


Smasharoo wrote:

One was a news article, one was editorial content. Diffrent things. Reading is Fundemental. That's why earlier in this very thread I said:

"People in business read it to read about news in the business world, not for the editorial content."

News, editorial content. Not the same.


Um... Whatever. So that shows us that apparently, those who write editorials are Republican shills, but those that write the supposedly factual news stories are Democrat shills. Ok. I can accept that logic if you can.


Quote:
Do we need any more evidence that when I make a mistake I post "hey, I made a mistake?"


Um... Sure.

However, you don't actually adjust your view when it's pointed out to be false. You very clearly make up your mind first, then pull out facts and pretend they support your view whether they do or not. You count on most folks not actually checking your facts, but when they do, you argue over every little semantic issue. If that fails, you abandon your source (but not your argument) and pull out something else that might support your position.

Quote:
Do we need any more evidence that when you make a mistake you don't? You desperately try to cobble together something that fits your claims from the actual reality?


Big difference Smash.

First. I'm apparently not wrong nearly as often as you are. I know this may be ego brusing to you, but this seems to be a fact. Part of the reason for this is because I actually look up information and look at the real facts and data out there before I start arguing something. Very rarely I'm wrong (the HP-bandage thing for warriors is the only one I can think of right now, and that was 3+ years ago, and I admitted I was wrong in the very next post after verifying the facts). You, on the other hand, seem to be wrong more often then right.


Second. When I'm stating my own opinion, I make it very clear that I'm just stating my opinion. That leaves me quite a bit of breathing room in a debate. You, on the other hand, very rarely say: "My opinion is X, but YYMV". In fact, I don't think I've ever seen you say that. It's usually more like: "Position X is right. It's the only thing that is right. Anyone who disagrees has the brain power of a syphalitic, one armed monkey..". By starting out that way, you now take on the onus of having to be 100% correct. Not just correct most of the time, or in some situations, but all the time, every time. That's why you end up being wrong so often.

Third. When I do use links to data or articles to support my position, I actually *read* them first. I don't assume they support my view because I don't have the Smasharoo overego that assumes that everything I believe is right. I actually read what they say and then make a statement based on the facts. Thus, when people go reading my sources, they always find that they confirm what I'm saying.


Yeah. I know. Apparently, forming your opinions based on the facts and data is just a crazy way of doing things. But when I read your posts on this kind of topic, it becomes abundantly clear that you form your opinions first and just assume all the facts support you. When they don't, you never change your position. For someone who argues vehemently about scientific methods over religious belief, you really do have a lot in common with the religious folks Smash. The only difference is that your religion is not based on God. It's based on the Democratic party. I actually find that even more pathetic then the most crazed christian.

But that's just my opinion you know. YMMV... ;)

Edited, Tue Mar 23 19:19:58 2004 by gbaji
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King Nobby wrote:
More words please
#42 Mar 23 2004 at 7:37 PM Rating: Decent
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Thing is though Gbaji, I have no idea of the figures, but there genuinely are lots of jobs being outsourced to India, especially in tech/programming/support. I have literally been the guy with a list of names and a black marker pen in deciding which people get made redundant and which don't. It does happen, and companies like mine are trying to increase the trend. Older expensive resources in non-management positions are the jobs that go first, technical skill-set is not the main consideration, cost is.

I'm not saying the sky is falling, but it is happening, and it is a trend. Some articles, since it seems the thing to do on this topic:

http://www.computerworld.com/industrytopics/manufacturing/story/0,10801,88222,00.html

http://www.outsourcing.com/OE/q403/accenture.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/online/story/0,3605,1048678,00.html
#43 Mar 23 2004 at 8:19 PM Rating: Good
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Well sure. There are. And McDonald's is hiring pretty much any day of the week. But that fact alone does not tell me that the local Italian restaraunt is going to go out of business (if you can follow the analogy).

First off, there's a lot of confusion when people talk about outsourcing. The word "outsourcing" just means a company hires people from another company instead of hiring people themselves. The term itself does not presume that jobs are being lost inside the company (although it's often used in that context). A company that is expanding into a new market will often outsource the new division first, perhaps with an option to buy it out later. Again. Looking at numbers of jobs "outsourced" does not have any direct correlation to people losing their jobs.

Furthermore, outsourcing does not assume a foreign nation. It's just an outside company. Nothing more. I gave an example of a friend of mine (cousin actually), who was himself "outsourced" 4 times in a 7ish year period. He never lost his job. He worked at the same location for the entire time. The name of the company he worked for changed several times though. That's outsourcing, but it has nothing to do with those darn "feriners" getting all the jobs that those red blooded American's should have instead...


Yes. There are examples of companies closing out divisions, laying off the employees in those divisions, and hiring an outside company in a foreign nation like India to serve the same purpose. It certainly does happen. But that's not all of outsourcing. It's in fact a very small amount of outsourcing.


Where I get annoyed is that folks will point to the kind I mentioned above and yell and scream about it happening. Then they will grab some statistics that list *total* jobs "outsourced" over a period of time and imply that all the jobs in the US are leaving for other shores. That's incredibly misleading. The fact is that the number of IT (and pretty much all other non-manufacturing field) jobs that are actually outsourced to other nations is not as great as the number of *new* jobs in those same fields generated domestically each year.

In other words, in the rare event that you happen to be that one guy in 10 thousand that loses his job because it was outsourced to India, odds are, there is another job opportunity in your field available for you. You just have to look for it. What we're actually seeing is that as larger corporations expand their businesses globally, they often start out controlling their foreign offices domestically. Over time, they realize that there is no business reason to do so, and they can save on labor costs as well, so they move those parts of their businesses overseas. This is the result of growth into those foreign markets, not just foreign labor taking US jobs away in a vacuum. Meanwhile, domestic markets are still growing, just not as fast as some foreign markets (particularly India which is going through a huge surge right now).


My point is that you are vastly more likely to lose your job because your boss just doesn't like you, or the company's latest product failed and they had to lay folks off, or any of a dozen different reasons, then that your job got outsourced to India. It's just such a non-event really. Does it happen? Sure it does. But folks die in car crashes on the freeways every day too. I still drive a car...
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More words please
#44 Mar 24 2004 at 4:21 AM Rating: Decent
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That is a pretty good argument Gbaji. It hinges on this paragraph though:

Quote:
The fact is that the number of IT (and pretty much all other non-manufacturing field) jobs that are actually outsourced to other nations is not as great as the number of *new* jobs in those same fields generated domestically each year.


I have no idea if that is true. Gut feel? I suspect that the total number of tech jobs in the UK has declined since the Dot.Com bubble burst (although the industry is picking up again around about now). This is probably true of the US too. There was a period for about the last 2-3 years where attrition at my company dropped to record low levels because there were no jobs available, and lots of people across the industry were being made redundant. This coincided with cost cutting pressure across all industries, which led to an increase in the use of an outsourcing model for back office functions. The outsourcing model, regardless of whether you go offshore or stay inshore relies on headcount reduction as the primary cost cutting measure. Fact.

What you also need to take into consideration is more than just current jobs that get replaced with offshore outsourcing, which I think you have argued successfully as being relatively low. You also need to think about possible new jobs that would have been created that get outsourced offshore. Hence you see a massive boon in tech jobs in India, during a time when tech growth in the UK/US is stagnant/shrinking. Most tech work in Bangalore is not servicing Indian/Asian companies, they provided global services for multi-nationals. In the past that service would have been provided in the US/UK most likely.

I agree with you that lots of the figures thrown around are misleading, exactly as I argued above about the OP's link being misleading.
#45 Mar 24 2004 at 5:39 PM Rating: Good
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Yeah. Outsourcing has become the hot button issue recently. And it's certainly a potential problems. Honestly though, what we're seeing is the result of the fabled "global economy". We can't really put the genie back in the bottle. Once corporations go multi-national, there is literally nothing that a single nation can do to prevent this. In fact, any method that a nation could come up with to try to stop it will only result in more outsourcing (raising taxes on businesses that outsource for example).

Neither the US nor the UK could possibly afford to subsidize the work that's being outsourced and that's literally the *only* way to prevent it. I have a hunch (this is just a guess by me), that things will balance out in the end though, especially when it comes to high tech work. You can never forget the first tenent of free enterprise: All people are greedy (not necessarily in a bad way). We're already seeing salaries rise in the Bangalore region of India. That's an expected trend. We outsource those high tech jobs to India because it's an emerging power. It's not just hordes of cheap labor that make it attractive. It's a pretty large number of *educated* workers that does. But not surprisingly, those darn Indians want to make the same money that folks in the US/UK do.

I predict that over time, the global economy will serve to balance out a whole lot of things economically (labor costs being the big one). Just as water when poured over holes with different depths will eventually all have the same level of water in them, the value of a specific *type* of labor will eventually be equalized no matter where you live. This is a good thing IMO (but then, I'm a futurist and I think that's where we need to be going). One can actually argue that fighting against this is equivalent to fighting to preserve and exploitive system and the exact have/have-not kind of dynamic that most people think is unfair. But that's just a guess on my part.


Oh. The thing about the number of jobs rising faster the being outsourced was based on some data in one of the links in the earlier thread (might even have been Smash's first one). I commented on it in that thread as well, pointing out that non-manufacturing jobs had grown domestically over the last 2 years (US domestic) while manufacturing jobs had decreased. Those were totals, so we can assume that at least for the group of "non-manufacturing jobs", there was more growth then loss (through outsourcing and all other losses). I honestly don't remember if those same numbers apply to IT jobs (which are part of the aformentioned group). I'm pretty sure they did. So yeah. A gues, but an educated one...
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#46 Mar 25 2004 at 11:23 AM Rating: Decent
Quote:
When people talked about the U.S. "exporting jobs" a decade ago, they always assumed the jobs had gone to Japan and Germany. Why? Those countries exported more than they imported, and thus had chronic trade surpluses. They still do.

The 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign book, "Putting People First," somehow imagined "Japan and Germany "threaten to surpass America in manufacturing by 1996." The Tokyo-based journalist Eamonn Fingleton's subtitled his 1995 book "Blindside" as "Why Japan is Still on Track to Overtake the U.S. by the Year 2000." Americans were being sold an economic inferiority complex, and many bought it. Or at least they bought the books.

What was really happening? From 1990 to 2000, industrial production increased by 49½ percent in the United States, 13.4 percent in Germany and 1½ percent in Japan. By 2003, Japan's industrial production index was still much lower than it was in 1990. Trade surpluses appeared in Japan and Germany only because their economies, and therefore their imports, grew slowly, not because exports grew rapidly. Japan's merchandise exports grew only 3 percent a year from 1990 to 2001, slower than Europe's 4 percent pace and only half as fast at the 6 percent yearly increase in U.S. exports.

Manufacturing jobs declined in all three countries, and most others, but industrial job losses were much greater in Japan and Germany. From 1990 to 1995, manufacturing jobs fell 1.6 percent a year in Japan and 4.2 percent a year in Germany, but only 0.6 percent in the United States. From 1995 to 2000, manufacturing jobs fell by 1.9 percent a year in Japan, by 0.8 percent in Germany but only 0.1 percent in the United States.

Neo-Luddites who view productivity gains as bad news should take note that annual increases in manufacturing productivity from 1990 to 2001were 3.8 percent in the United States and 2.8 percent in Japan and Germany. The country with by far the largest gains in industrial production and productivity also had by far the least traumatic loss of industrial jobs. That country was not Japan, which probably failed to overtake the United States even in sushi consumption

In the United States, unlike Japan and Germany, the secular trend toward automation of arduous manufacturing tasks was more than made up for by increased employment opportunities in finance, health, education and various professions. From 1990 to 2001 (which includes two recessions), employment rose 1.2 percent a year in the United States, compared with 0.3 percent in Japan and 0.1 percent in Germany.

Most of these facts are easily verified at the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web site, bls.gov. But in the mid-'90s, as today, those who claimed U.S. jobs losses were due to trade deficits never bothered to look at facts. Instead they assumed trade deficits meant lost jobs. So they likewise assumed that trade surpluses in Japan and Germany have meant those countries were gaining the jobs we lost. At last count, Germany still had a huge trade surplus — $153 billion over the past year — and an unemployment rate of 10.3 percent.

Trade was balanced in the United States in 1981 and 1991. Economies in recession don't need to import much oil, copper, bauxite, high-tech components, etc. The trade deficit increased after those recessions ended. But it would be absurd to claim (as some really do) that such increases in the trade deficit meant we would have had more jobs by staying in recession forever.

Despite the evident nonsense of equating trade deficits with job loss, and surpluses with job gains, that assumption is nonetheless still used by the AFL-CIO and Progressive Policy Institute to estimate or "impute" job losses to trade deficits.

It follows Japan and Germany must still be gaining all those jobs we are supposedly exporting. But nobody is foolish enough to try repeating that claim again. So those afflicted with chronic trade phobia have recycled their faded stories by simply replacing the words "Japan and Germany" with "China and India."

Mr. Fingleton's latest effort is an article called "Trading Down" in the American Prospect. Citing fellow curmudgeons Lester Thurow, Pat Choate and Lou Dobbs, Mr. Fingleton predicts "a devaluation from hell... a truly devastating devaluation." Given the author's forecasting record, the dollar naturally started moving up on this non-news.

Such efforts to rewrite the old "Japan will overtake us" melodrama lose a lot in translation. Unlike Japan, India has a chronic trade deficit in merchandise, averaging about 3 percent of GDP, so India has to export services to pay for rapidly increasing imports of food and machinery.

Diehard "twin deficits" zealots have even more explaining to do. India's budget deficit has ranged from 9 percent to 10 percent of GDP for a number of years, but that doesn't seem to have slowed the economy a bit.

China still has a small trade surplus, but the notion China has been stealing our manufacturing jobs faces a bigger problem. According to the Asian Development Bank (adb.org), China's industrial employment fell from 109.9 million in 1995 to 83.1 million in 2002 — a drop of 24 percent.

Anyone who wonders where U.S. manufacturing jobs have gone need not bother looking for those jobs in China, Japan, Hong Kong or South Korea. All those countries suffered much larger percentage declines in manufacturing jobs than the United States has. Politically inconvenient, perhaps, but true.

Nobody denies many manufacturing industries went through rough times from July 2000 to June 2003. Yet super-economist Brian Wesbury at gkst.com notes the manufacturing component of the U.S. industrial production index rose at an impressive 7.1 percent annual rate over the past six months.

Six months is not enough time for that big turnaround to have had much affected employment, but it will. People who keep reminding us that many measures of employment are not yet entirely back to the previous peak — which took nine years to reach — make a lot of noise without saying anything.

Whenever overly excited journalists, politicians and pseudo-economists start telling you the United States should worry more about economic strength in China and India than about economic weakness in Europe, Mexico and Canada, remember to check what they said about Japan and Germany overtaking the U.S. economy a mere decade ago.


From The Washington Times.
#47 Mar 26 2004 at 5:06 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
War Against the Machines

Why are protectionists endangering American jobs?

Ted Balaker



John Kerry seems to enjoy playing Pat Buchanan. Just as Buchanan once called on his peasant army to take up their pitchforks and rail against NAFTA, today Kerry wants those pitchforks aimed at "Benedict Arnold CEOs" who outsource jobs to foreign lands. And why wouldn't Kerry enjoy playing Pitchfork Pat? After all, he gains new credibility with blue-collar workers who might have previously seen him as an elitist with soft hands and an expensive haircut.

And the message is catching on. As angry protestors scorn outsourcing, the Senate's indignation takes bill form, and squeamish executives suggest ditching the o-word entirely. Raging against outsourcing may even bring Kerry something Buchanan never came close to—victory. Seems all he has to do is stick to the script: Foreigners are taking American jobs.

But from the save-our-jobs perspective, the new protectionists have more to fear from machines. After all, those soulless slaves to efficiency have stolen more American jobs than any foreigner. Hollywood visionaries use films like The Terminator and The Matrix to warn us of the coming war against the machines. Well, the war is here. Actually, it's been here for a long time.

The printing press swallowed human scriveners and the photocopier and personal computer destroyed countless office jobs. Machines like the tractor have overrun agriculture so much that, during the last century, farmers' share of the American workforce has fallen from 40 percent to 3. Just weeks ago a Kentucky city mourned when a machine replaced its last human elevator operator, and even the recently resolved Southern California grocery strike may turn out to be another victory for machines. Here man and machine used to work together in peace— human checkers appreciated how scanners would remember thousands of prices for them. But now some stores have begun phasing in automated checkout machines, which means human checkers work alongside machines that may eventually take their jobs. An analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data notes that—even without outsourcing—technology would have eliminated most of the jobs now going overseas. Sometimes it seems like our society is so mechanized that there's almost nothing left for us humans to do.

Of course, cursing machines misses the point because it tells only half of the story. Hyperventilating pundits can point to a specific sector or a narrow time frame and tell a tale of woe. And the quest for efficiency does kill jobs; but in the long run it creates more than it destroys. Sometimes an industry disappears or shrinks to a nub of its former self, and yet new life continues to sprout. It would be tough to find many scriveners today, but the printing press and the PC haven't destroyed office jobs. In fact, there are 19.5 million of them. Even high-end IT jobs go through the process of pruning and new growth. The Institute for International Economics notes that 70,000 computer programmers have lost their jobs since 1999. However, during that same period, companies created 115,000 higher paying jobs in software engineering. Taking a broader view reveals that—even with all the dips and churns—creation dwarfs destruction. At the end of World War II, there were about 138 million Americans. Today, 138 million Americans have jobs. Clearly, an efficient market is the best jobs program.

Still, can we connect the dots from efficiency gains to job growth? Some imagine that CEOs fire humans, hire machines, and then throw the extra cash on their money pile. This view may not be far off the mark in assuming ambition—perhaps even greed—motivates the CEO. However, the truly greedy won't simply stash the cash—they will reinvest it and dream of an even bigger payday. Since reinvestment spurs job growth, in order to accept the efficiency gains-job growth link you simply have to assume that corporate greed is alive and well. For most of us, this isn't a huge leap.

As the market evolves, we don't just exchange fewer jobs for more, we also trade up for better jobs. Since today's office mates squabble over a couple of clicks on the thermometer, it's a good thing few of them will have to find out how they'd survive in, say, a mineshaft. During the past 50 years we've lost over a quarter-million mining jobs, but we've gained 78 million service sector jobs. Today, 19 times as many Americans work in finance as in mining; 22 times more work in hospitality, and 54 times more work in heath and education.

It's often difficult to track job growth by a particular occupation, because many of today's jobs were created recently. Today's jobseeker has more choices than ever, which means that we are more likely get paid to do something we enjoy. Americans hold millions of jobs that did not exist a century ago. For example, our nation is home to 758,000 software engineers, 299,000 fitness workers and 128,000 aircraft mechanics. And many of the old-style jobs—far from being outsourced into oblivion—are more plentiful than ever. Our nation has 6.5 million teachers, 718,000 hairdressers, 281,000 chefs and 112,000 biologists. The chance for work to aid rather than hinder our quest for fulfillment is a truly historic development. How many miners stuck deep within the earth would rather have been video editors, web designers or car customizers?

Pointing out the market's marvels will not console the worker who lost his job to a machine or a foreign worker. To him the process remains vicious and absurd. "Why cut my job to save a few bucks?" he asks. Kerry and the new protectionists seek to engage this man, overstate the job-destroying aspect of outsourcing, and ignore its job-creating side.

However, an efficient economy can offer hope even to its victims—for victimhood itself is a temporary state. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, most of the unemployed find new jobs within three months, and the efficiency-seeking forces that fire a worker are the same forces that will ultimately rehire him. News accounts typically focus on how the unemployed will get along without a salary, but the cost of products also has a big impact on living standards. To hear our grandparents tell it, you'd think people used to be able to buy just about anything for a nickel. What grandma and grandpa don't usually bring up is how long they had to work to get that nickel. By that standard, the price of just about everything has fallen dramatically. More buying power helps the outsourced worker weather the lean times of unemployment. Moreover, as the market evolves, so must the worker's mindset. Job security no longer means fighting to keep the same job for 30 years, it means keeping ourselves marketable. Just as the market searches for ways to do things better, so will tomorrow's workers—by gaining new knowledge and skills—seek to better themselves.

The quest for efficiency—whether with machines or foreigners—will continue to create more than it destroys. But since destruction will always remain a part of the process, there will always be another Pat Buchanan or John Kerry. Free markets will continue to be a tough sell because the tradeoff will always be the same: exchanging some of today's jobs for more and better jobs that often don't yet exist. Protestors rarely wave angry signs at protectionist politicians who would jeopardize future jobs, but it's not fanciful to fight for jobs without knowing what they are. After all, when they were in third grade, today's 30-something web designers could not have dreamed of what they would end up doing. Likewise, today's third graders have no idea what's in store for them.



Ted Balaker is the Jacobs Fellow at the Reason Public Policy Institute and editor of Privatization Watch, which tracks government outsourcing.



From ReasonOnline http://www.reason.com/hod/tb031904.shtml
#48 Mar 29 2004 at 8:38 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:

First. I'm apparently not wrong nearly as often as you are. I know this may be ego brusing to you, but this seems to be a fact.

One, that's not a fact. Two, I know this may be ego brusing to you but I'm without question more inteligent and vastly better educated than you are. Neither of those things makes me a better person than you or, really, are important in any signifigant way. For some reason, however, you seem so intimidated by them that you perpetually argue against your own insecurity more so than what I have to say to the point where it seems like were not even conversing with each other at all. This is one of those times.


Quote:

Part of the reason for this is because I actually look up information and look at the real facts and data out there before I start arguing something. Very rarely I'm wrong (the HP-bandage thing for warriors is the only one I can think of right now, and that was 3+ years ago, and I admitted I was wrong in the very next post after verifying the facts). You, on the other hand, seem to be wrong more often then right.

Let me see if I understand this correctly. You're asserting that you haven't been wrong about anything you've posted on this forum in three years or so other than something about an EQ related game mechanic. Is that about right? Further, you're asserting that because I admit that I make mistakes and readily correct them when able that I'm wrong more often than I'm right as well as being wrong more often than you are?

Sadly, all of that is very likely untrue. Not having the time or inclination to sit here and document the dozens, probably literally hundreds of times, you've been factually incorrect beyond any doubt whatsoever in the past three years I'll be unable to produce an arbitrary "score" of how often you've been wrong. I would, however, bet my life and my wife's life that you've been factually incorrect oh...fifty times in the past three years. Without hesitation.

Also, your assertation that I'm wrong "more often" than I'm right is silly. That's an easy one for you to admit to being wrong about. It's silly hyperbole that would require me to post a factual mistake every other post which is virtually impossible in that most of what I post isn't even arguable.


Quote:

Second. When I'm stating my own opinion, I make it very clear that I'm just stating my opinion. That leaves me quite a bit of breathing room in a debate.

Indeed. The coward never takes a position that can be disproven. Holding an oppinion requires no factual basis and can never, ever, be incorrect. By definition. Apparently you see this as a wise way to debate whereas I see it as simple idealogism, or if you prefer, brainwashing. You begin with the opinion and then attempt to shape the facts around it. I begin with the facts and form an oppinion. My point this entire post.


Quote:

You, on the other hand, very rarely say: "My opinion is X, but YYMV". In fact, I don't think I've ever seen you say that. It's usually more like: "Position X is right. It's the only thing that is right. Anyone who disagrees has the brain power of a syphalitic, one armed monkey..". By starting out that way, you now take on the onus of having to be 100% correct.

Fortunately for me, you're not the arbiter of what I have the onus of proving or providing. Fortunately for you, I'm not the arbiter of you having to actually back up ninety percent of your spurrious pointless arguments with fact as opposed to imaginary "common sense" which seems to occur only to you and to those you allow to create your ideaolgy.


Quote:

Not just correct most of the time, or in some situations, but all the time, every time. That's why you end up being wrong so often.

The part you're missing is that qualifying everything, as you do, with "this is just my oppinion" doesn't make you any less factually incorect when you state facts (or fail to state them as is more often the case). Hence I could argue, as convincingly as your insane absolutist argument here, that any time you don't base an oppinion in a stated fact, you are wrong. Were that the case, the number of times you've been wrong would be in the thousands easily.

Quote:

Third. When I do use links to data or articles to support my position, I actually *read* them first. I don't assume they support my view because I don't have the Smasharoo overego that assumes that everything I believe is right.

That actually made me laugh out loud. You have have the Gabji insecurity that assumes that everything you believe is right AND DOESN'T EVER REQUIRE A FACTUAL BASIS TO BE SO.


Quote:

I actually read what they say and then make a statement based on the facts. Thus, when people go reading my sources, they always find that they confirm what I'm saying.

Well, you know, thinking back to both occasions you've actually ever used facts in an argument it's hard to argue with you there. Oh wait, there was that time you used that web site which was dedicated to publishing non peer reviewed research papers. So I guess when people go reading your sources they allways find that they come from astonishingly biased sources. Sort of linking the Aryan Nations site to provide "facts" about a debate on race.

You're quite right, however, in that you'd never post anything without carefully reading over it to ensure that it met the standards of your argument. If you found that it utterly disproved your argument beyond any doubt, you'd not post and pretend it didn't exist.

Which is the fundemental diffrence between us.

Quote:

Yeah. I know. Apparently, forming your opinions based on the facts and data is just a crazy way of doing things.

You have the timeline wrong here, my freind. You start with the oppinion and then go out and attempt to find facts that match. Allways. I've never once seen you start with the facts and build an oppinion from them.


Quote:

But when I read your posts on this kind of topic, it becomes abundantly clear that you form your opinions first and just assume all the facts support you. When they don't, you never change your position.

You're wrong QED. I've repeadetly changed my oppinions on this forum as I learn more about subjects. What you're describing is what YOU do. This isn't an "I know you are but what am I" it's just a simple fact. Anyone who's posted here for any legnth of time can decide this for us with some measure of objectivity. I'm capable and willing to admit to making mistakes and capable and willing of modifying my positions as facts warrant.

YOU AREN'T

Don't take my word for it.


Quote:

For someone who argues vehemently about scientific methods over religious belief, you really do have a lot in common with the religious folks Smash. The only difference is that your religion is not based on God. It's based on the Democratic party. I actually find that even more pathetic then the most crazed christian.

But that's just my opinion you know. YMMV... ;)

/yawn. The sad part is I think you likely really believe that. That even sadder part is that anyone who posts here can tell you that it's simply not true. The saddest part of all is that none of them will likely care enough to bother doing so.

There are times when my pity for you is overwhelming to the point where I almost post "Yes, you're so right" just to avoid your continued and ceaseless ability to make a fool of yourself here.

Almost, but not quite.

____________________________
Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#49 Mar 29 2004 at 8:54 PM Rating: Good
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Feel insecure much Smash?
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More words please
#50 Mar 29 2004 at 9:04 PM Rating: Decent
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30,086 posts
Quote:

Feel insecure much Smash?

Nah, no need to. I do on occasion feel insecure when I'm having a conversation with someone who's got me outgunned intelectually. I do something you'd find odd in those situations, however. I pause and listen and consider what they have to say more so than I would normally because I'm acutely aware that they have more knowledge on the subject than I do.

I'm sure that you've never had a simmilar experience, however, being as you'd be wholey unable to ever admit being in such a situation. I'm sure that in your small pond of freinds you are indeed the big fish most of the time and it fills with you happiness, or at least enables you not cry yourself to sleep at night. Having been personally educated by Nobel Prize winners and men and women of sheer unadulterated genius I've long ago accepted the fact that while I might be a very big fish indeed, there are absolutely giant sharks in the world who could swallow me whole in a single bite.

Your entire problem is that you think you're a shark. It's all about perspective.
____________________________
Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#51 Mar 30 2004 at 1:28 AM Rating: Decent
I would have to agree with Smash on this Gbaji, he and I share no love, and I am sure that if you were to ask him, he will without a doubt say that he doesnt like me. But, he does however admit when he is wrong or exagerating.

You on the other hand seem to be incapable of that. I have been wrong many times, a few times with Smash, I dont doubt that he was right, or that he is smarter then I am. I will say that like you I dont like to admit when someone is smarter then I am or when they have me on the ropes. You Gbaji are probably smarter then I am as well you certainly can type better then I can, well at least for longer then I can=P and you definately make more then I do. I found one thing to be true in my encounters with Smash sometimes it is better to capitulate then be beat over the head with how wrong you are.

I dont agree with how he as a person treats people, but in his arguments I find him to be hard to disagree with and right most of the time.

My oppinon as Angry Hippo would definately agree is worth ****, as I am one of the least intellectual people who post here.

You on the other hand do have flashes of brillance and defiantely make me think about my own positions, however you do have a weakness. You cannot admit when you are arguing from undefensible position, or when you are wrong, and rather then just say, "lol, Smash(or whoever) you caught me with my pants down on that one," will continue to type pages and pages to say that while he "might" be right on one portion of the arguement that you are right on the whole. Sometimes you have to captiulate, it doesnt prove you are less then someone just that you know when to say when.

I will say that watching you continue to debate Smash has been one of the reasons I have kept reading this forum.
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