The Chetto's ideas on FFXI economic inflationFollow

- Repost from the main board XD -

First of all, to all you people who think that economics and whatnot do not apply to FFXI, you probably shouldn't read this thread, because you are uninformed and this would only serve to annoy or aggravate you :p

To those of you who think I am beating an already dead and decomposed horse, I apologize in advance.

Anyways, I was thinking the other day about why inflation is on such a mad rise. One notion came up was that the gilsellers (IGE) mainly have been selling gil for a sale. I think it was like 2m for $12 last I checked, which is noticably low. A friend of mine, whom I wanted to slap, bought 1million gil a year ago for $45. Anyways, I started to think about this. I came to the conclusion that gilsellers are certainly not the sole factor in causing this inflation, its mostly the players who are responsible for it. Its everyday Joe and Jane that is causing uncontrollable price increases.

Lets look at an example. For the last week or so, I have seen the price of spider webs on my server (Bismarck) consistently fluctuate from 20-30k. A couple weeks ago 20k was a standard price, and often less. Anyways, I have been buying them as much as a can, and always refusing to pay more than 25k a pop. Often there would be up to 40 spider webs in stock that are listed at over 25k, but I wouldnt purchase them. This part is key, the search history would be filled with webs sold at 25k a piece. When the average player puts something up for sale, he or she checks the price history for the current price, and typically lists it for that. If there is a surplus, some undercut because they fear their item will not sell. What happens which causes inflation is the limitations of the auction house history, and impatient players who decide they cannot wait for the item to show up a the listed price, start paying more than the average.

Now what happens? Take your average player once again, who sees that these webs start selling for more than 25k. Naturally he or she is going to be inclined to list his or her item at more than the standard, because there are impatient morons out there who would pay more than the standard. Prices start going up. Eventually, the price history is filled with webs selling for 27k, then 28k, 30k. It is an endless chain reaction that only takes one person to ***** it for the rest of us.

Another example. Farmers have a profound impact on the economy. Looking at clothcraft again, lets take the ever-popular silk threads. These are a favorite of farmers on every server, and their price reflects it. At the time of this writing, on Bismarck the price is fluctuating between 50-60k. How do these simple threads affect a larger economy? Lets look at ONE recipe: Silk cloth.

Earth crystal + 3x silk thread = 1 Silk cloth
On Bismarck it costs around 150-180k to make one stack of cloth. Those who sell silk now have to list it minimum at 150-180k just break even. What happens if the price on threads goes up just 5k? Some overzealous farmer may notice the supply is low, and decides to hike up prices because he knows they will sell.

Silk threads are now 55-65k. That means silk cloth is now 165-195k a stack. Thats a 15k increase in price. Now lets look at the big picture with this small price increase. Here is a list of all the known recipies that use silk thread:

* Arhat's Hakama - Clothcraft(88)
* Arhat's Sune-Ate - Clothcraft(82) Smithing(41)
* Battle Bracers - Clothcraft(72)
* Blue Cape - Clothcraft(81)
* Brilliant Gold Thread - Clothcraft(58) Goldsmithing(?)
* Clothespole - Woodworking(77)
* Darksteel Nodowa - Smithing(83)
* Dull Gold Thread - Clothcraft(58) Goldsmithing(?)
* Gold Brocade - Clothcraft(86)
* Gold Thread - Clothcraft(58) Goldsmithing(41)
* Green Beret - Clothcraft(76)
* Haidate - Smithing(62) Clothcraft(?)
* Hara-Ate - Smithing(68) Clothcraft(49)
* Hirenjaku - Goldsmithing(93) Woodwrking(?) Leathercraft(?)
* Jester's Cape - Clothcraft(74) Leathercraft(20)
* Kaman - Woodworking(57)
* Kamayari - Woodworking(52) Smithing(41)
* Kote - Smithing(67) Clothcraft(?)
* Magical Silk Cloth - Clothcraft(53)
* Nodowa - Smithing(66)
* Opaline Hose - Clothcraft(66)
* Rainbow Cape - Clothcraft(94)
* Rainbow Velvet - Clothcraft(79)
* Rasetsu Hakama - Clothcraft(97) Smithing(41) Leather(31)
* Rasetsu Sune-Ate - Clothcraft(92) Smithing(41) Leather(41)
* Sakurafubuki - Smithing(63) Alchemy(51) Woodworking(?)
* Shiny Gold Thread - Clothcraft(58) Goldsmithing(?)
* Silk Cloth - Clothcraft(53)
* Silver Brocade - Clothcraft(76)
* Silver Thread - Clothcraft(47) Goldsmithing(12)
* Smooth Velvet - Clothcraft(51)
* Smooth Velvet - Clothcraft(45)
* Sune-Ate - Smithing(64) Clothcraft(?)
* Tarutaru Fishing Rod - Woodworking(65)
* Uchigatana - Smithing(53) Woodworking(?) Leathercraft(?)
* Velvet Cloth - Clothcraft(45)
* Velvet Cloth - Clothcraft(51)
* Velvet Hat - Clothcraft(55) Goldsmithing(8)
* Wakizashi - Smithing(36) Woodworking(?) Leathercraft(?)
* Yasha Hakama - Clothcraft(96) Smithing(41) Leathercraft(31)
* Zunari Kabuto - Smithing (69) Clothcraft (34)

Joe farmer is gathering silk to buy his shiny new arhat's hakama. He is getting a lot of silk, and realizing that he can sell it for increased prices when the supply is low. Smart playing, right Joe? Wrong. because he is increasing prices on silk, he is in essence ******** himself, because the price on the arhats is naturally going to go up. This is a random example, but it can show just how much one little item can have an affect on the economy. The price on one material goes up, and it just opens the floodgates for a lot of equipment, medicine, etc to go up as well.

What can we do with situations like this? How can we as a player control inflation? Every one person in this game can have a profound impact on the economy, whether it be those who farm for items, and those who buy them and craft. I have a few suggestions that may help.

1) Have Patience in Buying

I for think we should all have a little patience. Everyone can do their part to help control inflation. If an item in the price history is consistently selling for a price, and you cannot get it for that price, wait! Someone will likely list it for that price eventually, especially if its an item that sells frequently. If not, try the old system of shouts, I can't emphasize enough how many times I have saved a lot of money doing a real trade for goods instead of buying from the auction house.

2) Undercut When Selling if you Think Your Item's Price is Out of Pontrol.

I do this sometimes, which typically is frowned on upon players. But if you are selling an item that consistently has a massive profit margin, you can undercut and do your part to help keep the prices and inflation down. Again, the auction house history plays a major part in this, as people typically list their item at the standard rate.

3) Be a Cheapass Like Me!

Underbid on everything. Everything everything! You might catch those undercutters in the act. If you cant get something for 10000gil, bid 10001, or 10100. A lot of people add a few extra gil to keep taxes down, and still sell for the next increment in price. Again, this plays into the history, as it will be lowering prices and fighting against inflation.

4) If You Farm, Increasing Prices May ***** You, and Will Everyone Else In the Long Run

I am a firm believe that people who farm for popular materials are largely responsible for the price increases, as well as the people who pay these prices for them. If you are a bigtime farmer, don't increase prices. Usually what is in your best interest is to find people to sell exclusively to, for a steady price. This way you can consistently sell your goods weekly or daily, instead of waiting on the auction house to see if someoen will pick up your newly acquired booty.

My final suggestion isn't something we players can do, but it aimed at SE (which I almost gaurantee they will never see). It goes back to the auction house. I believe that the auction house severely limits the players ability to run the economy, in terms of the price history. When you can only see the last 10 sales, it is easy for someone to set up a temporary monopoly on prices and control the market, at least for the time being for their own purposes. If the auction house price histories were able to go back maybe 50, even 100 sales, it would go a looooooong way to controlling inflation. People could see just how badly price increases were, what the standard may have been an hour ago, or even 15 minutes ago, and see who is trying to raise prices on all of us :p

Oh well, I have a feeling this may fall on deaf ears, but it was just something on my mind. Hope you enjoyed the read :p

It's all about supply and demand, hehe. Though I would say that having a longer price history would help out. Gilselling will always be around and in addition to your player suggestions of undercutting prices (which I do on 90% of what I sell, mostly crystals) you can hope people will stop buying their money. Information drives economies in both real life and here, and the more informed we as players are, the better purchases we can make.

--WARNING: TANGENT--

It would also be nice if, like the guilds, certain NPCs for a limited time would "compete" with the Auction House's prices on popular items, even finished products like the Haub, etc (yes, I know you can buy weapons at a smith shop but look at the huge price difference. These shops seem to act only as a "ceiling" on common items). Competition drives prices like none other in a capitalistic system like the one FF11 uses. Then again, things that people complain most of the time about are "fluff" items used for min/maxing your character. I can guarantee Squeenix didn't sit down at a meeting and say "We need to make only one item all jobs ABSOLUTELY NEED to perform at it's base standards and expectations". Examples would be the Haub, Leapers, Emp Pin, and so forth.

I see this far too often where people take the absolute best a job can perform at any given level and trying to make it the standard fare. It's nice to have bonuses, but they will always come at a cost. If you want the fluff, you pay the bill and no complaints especially because you can "farm" the materials/items yourself. Now paying 100k (for example) for a bronze armor set is something else as it is a base need for most jobs at an extremely low level.

Erm where was I? Oh yes, good, non-rabblerousing ideas! I always seem to anger people by calling the above items "unnecessary (for standard, designer-planned job performance) fluff". =D

With items like silk for clothcrafters or rice for cooks, some kind of expanded availability would be nice at the guilds. The server could see that these items sell out every time and thus could provide more, even at a higher cost. This in turn would lower the price like you mentioned with silk and who wouldn't like cheap(er, even by a bit)/more available sushi?

I tried reading Phyree's post, but the sig blinded me. ; ;