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Maybe we're saying the same thing
Umm, yes?
That article looks pretty good, but it doesn't really address the Hit Rating curve which is what I was trying to expand on. That is also why it requires very little Hit Rating to be capped against a 82 target, compared to a 83 target, since the biggest chunk of the 17% (11%) comes from the 3rd level difference.
I'm not too sure at this point what sort of answer you were looking for. :P