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I can only see Blizzard fixting this somehow. Maybe your next ranks of Water Sheild will give you back such a significant more amount of mana that you will be able to handle the mana inefficientcy of not being able to downrank.
Basically, consider water shield vs spell cost. There is a gap between mana-gain and mana-expenditure for shaman and the gap between the two widens with the expansion. It's causing raiding shamans at 80 to go oom in about 2-3 min (and that's with using a pot AND mana-tide). >.> Shamans have always been THE WORST single target healers in the game. Worst mana-efficiency and worst HPS on a single target. With the expansion it is becoming worse.
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but what about the new talent Improved water shield - a water shield orb is consumed when you get a crit from healing wave or lesser healing wave?
The problem is relying on RNG. Even with roughly 20-25% crit on Brutallus (I ended up with a moonkin in my group) I healed the main tank 10 times with no crit. I was trying to get the armor buff on him using rank 1 healing wave. If I was using max rank, I'd have been oom in 10 casts. Moreover, relying on crits from a max rank means you are going to overheal (except maybe on a crazy fight like Brutallus). So, really this is a talent a BIT like Serendipity but relying on RNG in addition to overhealing.
The other huge problem with this talent is that you are using up your passive MP5 buff. So after X number of crits from these spells you have to waste another GCD to buff yourself. Often, you can't afford to use a GCD to buff yourself meaning you lose BOTH the passive MP5 and the chance to pop an orb. Keeping a tank alive is priority. Keeping DPS alive is second priority. Buffing yourself for mana regen is LAST priority. All this adds up to shamans with no mana and tanks dying anyways (or relying on other healers to actually do the healing which is what is going to happen).
The worst part is that dev's are nerfing our talents and none of them have even worked properly yet. :( Ancestral Awakening heals the person with the lowest max health (ie a mage with 7k health [100% health] instead of a warrior with 10k health [70%]). Tidal Waves has a "cast delay" before you get the buff, so the increase in cast speed is basically negated by having to wait for the buff. Spirit Link is still bugged and links to low health pets and casters, nearly killing people along with breaking early as a waste of mana.
Basically, I'm leveling my priest to heal too. lol Well, unless they fix a LOT of stuff with Shaman. :(