Neglecting the GCD artificially inflates the damage of Wrath on a NG proc. Also, you're neglecting the fact that you get less crit % than what's actually listed, due to spells needing to hit before they can crit. Your calculations are based on WoW melee hit-tables. Also, no one cares if you can maximize DPS on trash mobs. There's no enrage timer, and your healers will probably end the pull at over 80% mana.
At 4% spell hit from talents only, 20% crit in Moonkin form, 600 +spell damage, level 73 mob
Chance to hit: 87%
of the 87% hits, 20% will crit, or 17.4% of total spell casts
Wrath base damage: 381-429 (405 average)
Contribution from +damage: 600 x .57 = 342
Total: 405+342 = 747, x1.1 (5/5 Moonfury) = ~822
.13 x 0 + .174 x 822 x 2 + .696 x 822 =
0 + 286.06 + 572.11 = 858.17
Starfire base damage: 540-636 (588 average)
Contribution from +damage: 600 x 1 = 600
Total: (588 + 600) x 1.1 = 1307
.13 x 0 + .174 x 1307 x 2 + .696 x 1307 =
0 + 454.84 + 909.67 = 1364.51
Spell crits proc Nature's Grace, effectively adding 1/6 (~16.6%) the DPS of a Starfire to every Wrath or Starfire crit. (Assuming 1364.51 for base calculation to avoid Calculus)
Wrath damage including NG:
[.13 x 0] + [.174 x (822 x 2 + 1364.51 / 6)] + [.696 x 822] =
0 + 325.63 + 572.11 = 897.74
Damage per second casting: 897.74 / 1.5 = 598.49
Damage per mana: 897.74 / 255 = 3.52
Now we'll increase hit rate by 1%
Chance to hit: 88%
of the 88% hits, 20% will crit, or 17.6% of total spell casts
Wrath:
[.12 x 0] + [.176 x 822 x 2] + [.704 x 822] =
0 + 289.34 + 578.69 = 868.03
Starfire:
[.12 x 0] + [.176 x 1307 x 2] + [.704 x 1307] =
0 + 460.06 + 920.13 = 1380.19
Wrath including NG:
[.12 x 0] + [.176 x (822 x 2 + 1380.19 / 6)] + [.704 x 822] =
0 + 329.83 + 578.69 = 908.52
DPSC: 908.52 / 1.5 = 605.68, increased by 7.19
DPM: 908.52 / 255 = 3.56, increased by .04
This time we'll increase crit rate by 1% instead of hit rate
Chance to hit: 87%
of the 87% hits, 21% will crit, or 18.2% of total hits
Wrath:
[.13 x 0] + [.182 x 822 x 2] + [.688 x 822] =
0 + 299.21 + 565.54 = 864.75
Starfire:
[.13 x 0] + [.182 x 1307 x 2] + [.688 x 1307] =
0 + 475.75 + 899.22 = 1374.97
Wrath including NG:
[.13 x 0] + [.182 x (822 x 2 + 1374.97 / 6)] + [.688 x 822] =
0 + 340.92 + 565.54 = 906.46
DPSC: 906.46 / 1.5 = 604.31, increased by 5.82
DPM: 906.46 / 255 = 3.55, increased by .03
Recap for people that skimmed over the math:
Increasing hit rating by 1% increased DPSC of Wrath by 7.19, or 1.2%. Increasing crit rating by 1% only increased the DPSC of Wrath by 5.82, or .97%.
This ignores the fact that 3
Great Dawnstones will give you 1.9% spell hit and 3
Gleaming Dawnstones will only give 1.09% spell crit.
Edit: gem links
Edited, Apr 24th 2008 4:30pm by AstarintheDruid