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Earth Shield alone can heal a good tank in most instances on trash.
Not past any of the "normal" content, it can't. Heroics (unless your tank is supremely overgeared) and all raid content is going to require active healing.
For trash in heroics, Earth shield is the difference between using Chain heal centered on your tank and having to use Healing Wave. For Bosses in Heroics, you are correct.... Earth Shield isn't going to do it all alone, but again you can assume 5k healed with Earth Shield even for a moderately geared player. So you essentially have roughly a healing wave over time on the tank while cleaning up the raid.
I will say, any fight that requires a lot of movement is ALWAYS bad for shaman. The entire premise of the class is sadly based on standing still. Long cast times, totems that you throw down and don't move.
Aside from paladin [lay of hands], I'd say we have one of the best "oh ****" buttons for a main tank. If you are casting healing wave on the tank, and he almost died for whatever reason (other healers died, knocked back, teleported elsewhere... any number of things).... follow it with a Nature's swiftness Healing Wave. You have a 9k+ heal essentially (healing wave + instant Healing Wave)... and if you get two crits in a row, that's 15k+.... which is roughly 50-75% of a tank's health.
Anyone spamming heals on the MT is going to overheal. It doesn't matter what class you are. Tidewalker comes to mind. Everytime our pallies are healing the main tank, they are far and away the most overhealing. That being said, our heals aside from chain heal (and passive healing spring totem and earth shield) are the most mana inefficient. We are designed to be raid healers, but I know I could heal the main tank on Tidewalker just as well as any pally... which I know because I'm generally the back-up healer if/when pallies are sent to watery graves.
I really feel the issue is moreso that we're such good raid healers that we won't be used to main-tank heal. We aren't ever given the opportunity to demonstrate that we are capable of it. That's fine, a paladin can't raid heal very well, so why take away their spot in healing the tank when they can't do the reverse? The same can be said for priests depending on spec to some degree, though they have more tools at their disposal to make up for it.