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is a two-hander going to give me better stats than a shield and one-hander combined?
No. The only stat difference is that a 1-hand and shield will have more armor, while a 2-hander will have better melee damage. Other than those obvious facts, the iLevel evens the rest of the stats out.
For groups and PvP, use a shield. The armor value doesn't count against its ilevel, and a good shield can more than double your armor rating (and thus double your physical mitigation). The shield, more than mail armor, is what makes us a lot more durable than priests and druids. True, you
shouldn't be pulling agro... but you will eventually anyway. As an added bonus, you can enchant both your 1-hander AND your shield; since all worthwhile 2-handed enchants are melee-oriented, you'll probably have to stick a 1-handed enchant on your 2-hander anyway.
For soloing, it's a little more preference-oriented. Since you're essentially tanking, a shield isn't a bad idea against physical-damaging mobs. However, I found that my survivability was so high (Earth Shield alone often heals more damage than I take) that I could get away with swinging a 2-hander for the extra damage. In patch 2.3, we won't even need to waste talent points to use a 2-handed mace or axe too--a VERY good thing for us, since staff DPS ratings are pretty weak after level 60.