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#1 Feb 17 2006 at 2:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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Note that "Az Math" is an anagram of "Haz Mat" or Hazardous Materials. Read/use at your own risk.

I never seem to fail to astonish or completely confuse people with numbers I throw around. (Astonish in a good way, or at how big a nerd I am, I don't know.) So I figured I'd just start a column and periodically make comments as to how the numbers behind the game affect things. If you have an idea for an Az Math topic, send me a PM.

Note: quite a few things in this thread have become obsolete, and the rest will be when The Burning Crusade starts.

Going to start today with a very common subject of confusion among hunters:


Az Math #1:
Why Slow Weapons Do (Did) More Overall Damage


Please note that the following is no longer valid with normalization changes.


The game determines how hard you hit per second, and then multiplies it by your weapon speed to determine how much each attack does. Not a big deal, since over the long haul, two weapons will do the same damage for autoshot. The snag is that Multishot and Aimed Shot also hit harder, and have nothing to do with weapon delay.

The best I've ever seen my character, buffed, was about 180 tooltip DPS, and 30% crit. (Your tooltip, or white DPS is the DPS from mousing over your damage on your character window. Your crit rate is the mouseover tip for Attack in your spellbook, plus your bonus from Lethal Shots.) Since tooltip doesn't factor in crit damage, and I have Mortal Shots, I have roughly 250 long-term autoshot DPS. [That's 180 * (1 + 1.3*.30), I'll explain this another day.]

Standing still and firing, the best damage a hunter can do is to autoshot, while throwing in an aimed shot and multi shot about every 10 seconds. Depending on your weapon delay, you might get 3, 4, or 5 autoshots in that time window.


Let's look at my current weapon, Striker's Mark. The part we care about right now is that the delay is 2.50, which means my autoshots under that fully-buffed situation would do 250 DPS * 2.5 seconds = 625 damage. This is before armor, so it's actually less, but that's not important for what we're doing.

I can get 4 autoshots and an Aimed Shot off in about 9.6 seconds, which we'll round up to 10 seconds for human error and so we can fit in the multishot. In that time, I will do:

4 autoshots, at 625 each = 2500 damage.
1 Aimed, at 625 +600 = 1225 damage.
1 Multi, at 625 +150 = 775 damage, +15% bonus from Barrage or full Giantstalker = 891.
TOTAL DAMAGE: 4616 damage, in 10 seconds = 462 damage per second.


Now, let's use a weapon just like Striker's Mark, but with a 3.4 delay - the same delay as the top weapon in the game, Ashjre'thul. Now I can get 3 autoshots and an Aimed off in about 9 seconds. I *could* wait for that 4th shot, but it will slow down the Aimed/Multi rotation too much, so we'll just say this is what happens in 10 seconds. The thing is, at 250 DPS, a 3.4 delay weapon will deal 850 damage. So...

3 autoshots, at 850 each = 2550 damage.
1 Aimed, at 850 +600 = 1425 damage.
1 Multi, at 850 +150 = 1000 damage, +15% bonus = 1150.
TOTAL DAMAGE: 5125 damage, in 10 seconds = 513 damage per second.

So by merely making my weapon fire about 1 second slower, I get an 11% increase in damage -- that's nearly as much as Ranged Weapon Specialization and Mortal Shots combined! (Maybe more, depending on your crit rate.)


WHAT ABOUT PVP?

Well, PvP is a no-brainer that doesn't even take math. You've seen how per-shot damage is higher with the slow weapon. Since the only place the two really come up even is autoshot damage, which very often doesn't get used in PvP, the per-shot damage is much more important. With stronger Multis, and when you can get snipe one, Aimed as well, slow weapons rule PvP.


DO I CARE WHILE LEVELING?

My instinct is to say no. When you're grinding out in the wilderness, on quest mobs or just on whatever, you don't want to stop for mana or anything, so you won't be using Aimed and Multi constantly. You might open the fight with an Aimed and then auto the rest of the way out. So this doesn't impact lower-level players as much.

Also, because the difference comes mostly because of higher DPS rates, and at low levels your DPS from attack power isn't that high, it's also of much less consequence.



Summary: WTF am I doing with a Striker's Mark, costing myself nearly 50 DPS just because I don't use a CSX or Bloodseeker instead?

Edited, Dec 6th 2006 11:22am by Azuarc

Edited, Jun 9th 2007 12:27pm by Azuarc

Edited, Jan 27th 2008 1:03pm by Azuarc
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#2 Feb 17 2006 at 4:05 PM Rating: Excellent
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Az Math #2:
How damage is determined



Remember the old formula you learned in 8th grade, distance = rate * time?

Well, in the World of Warcraft, *damage* = rate * time.
Damage is, well, the damage you do per shot.
Time is the delay of your weapon.
And the rate is this tricky thing called damage-per-second, or DPS. In other games, DPS was found from the damage. In this one, the damage is found from the DPS.

Basically, when the game decides how much damage a shot does, the following happens:
1. Determine your DPS.
2. Multiply by your delay.
3. Pick a random point in the weapon's damage range and add that on.
4. Apply bonuses. (Most notably, decide if the attack is a crit.)
5. Apply your target's special effects, like armor.


STEP 1: DETERMINING DPS
Your DPS is a combination of a few things, but mostly, it's your Attack Power divided by 14. Attack Power can be generated from items that simply have attack power on them, or every point of agility you have adds 2 attack power.

There are a few buffs that also add to your AP, but be careful: buffs that don't specify only add to your MELEE attack power, and not your ranged. Aspect of the Hawk and Trueshot Aura help your "RAP", but Blessing of Might, warrior shouts, etc. only add to melee.

Additionally, you can add to your DPS through ammunition. I personally don't find it very economical to buy specialty ammunition and just stick to the vendor bought, but even then, you're adding 13 DPS.


STEP 2: MULTIPLY BY DELAY

Just what it says, multiply by your weapon's printed delay. Although your quiver and a few other things might make you actually attack faster, stick to the true delay of the weapon.

edit: with Normalization changes, this does not apply to Aimed Shot or Multi Shot. For those attacks, use a delay of 2.8


STEP 3: ADD IN WEAPON DAMAGE

If your weapon can do "60-89 damage", the game will pick a number from 60-89 and add it in. When you look at your tooltip damage and see the high and low ends of your damage, this is basically the difference.


STEP 4: APPLY BONUSES

There are a bunch of things that add bonuses. Scopes add damage directly to your total thus far. A multishot (at level 60) receives an additional 150 damage. Attacking a dragon while you have the Monster Slaying talent will add 3% to your total so far.

And then there's the chance to crit. Your chance to crit is listed under your attack button in your spellbook. This gives you your melee chance to crit. If your melee weapon skill (in your main-hand) is maxed, as well as your ranged, your crit rates should be the same, except for an extra 5% from Lethal Shots if you have that talent. So if you have a 20% chance to crit, on average, one in five attacks will be a critical strike.

On a crit, your damage is multiplied by 2. If you have Mortal Shots, you can make that 2.3, and if you have an appropriate slaying talent, you can make that 2.03 or 2.33. Obviously, if you could get a 100% chance to crit, you'd effectively be doubling your damage.


STEP 5: APPLY TARGET'S EFFECTS

Let's say you fire a shot for 500 damage. But your target is a paladin, and he has armor that mitigates 40% of incoming damage. That means you're only doing the remaining 60% of your 500, which is just 300. (This is why Aimed Shots don't look like they add 600 damage.)

Plus, if that paladin has Blessing of Sanctuary, that will lower the damage by a few more points, and if he casts Divine Shield, he won't take any damage at all!



USING DAMAGE TO DECIDE GEAR UPGRADES:

This is a more complicated subject than I'm going to get into right now, but if you want to work stuff out on paper, here's a few simple things you can do.

-Rather than going through step 3, add the weapon's DPS during step 1...DPS is (high end damage + low end damage)/2, but every weapon has that printed out on it for your reference. The weapon's DPS and delay matter more than anything else. (See the preceding article for why delay matters.)

-Your result of step 1 should match your "tooltip" or "white" DPS, which you can find in your character menu by mousing over your ranged damage.

-Once you have your tooltip DPS, decide how much the attributes of a (non-weapon) item help your damage as follows:

14 Attack Power = 1 tooltip DPS
1% crit = 1% of tooltip DPS, or 1.3% with Mortal Shots
1% hit = 1% of tooltip DPS, unless you have over +5% chance to hit
6 agility = about 1 DPS. (7 agility = 1 DPS from Attack Power gains, and it also contributes slightly to your chance to crit.)

Note that adding 1% crit or 1% hit is not the same thing as adding 1% (or 1.3%) total damage, because your total damage considers your other chance to crit.

And of course, always keep in mind that there is more to consider with an item that how much damage it adds, but this seems to be a focal point for most hunters.


AVERAGE DAMAGE:

On average, a non-crit autoshot will do the total DPS (with weapon) * delay. If you have, say, a 17% chance to crit, your overall long-term damage will be the same as if you had a slightly higher DPS. Specifically, it would be your DPS multiplied by:
1 + .17 * 1.3
The .17 is just the 17% crit rate, so replace that with your own, and the 1.3 is the bonus for Mortal Shots. If you don't have that talent, just leave that off.

So if you had 85 tooltip DPS, and the 17% crit rate suggested earlier, then you could expect to have a long-term DPS of 103.8, which means that if the fight went on for 100 seconds, you would do about 10380 damage if you just stood and fired autoshot the whole time.

Edited, Fri May 12 02:11:51 2006 by Azuarc
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#3 Feb 17 2006 at 5:09 PM Rating: Decent
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Excellent info, thanks Az!

One question concerning percent to crit (as depicted by mousing over attack icon). Does this include any additional percent to crits you get from gear? As an example my two Assasination blades and Don Julios band add a total of 3% to crit. Should I add that 3% to the number displayed from the attack mouseover, or is that already included?

#4 Feb 17 2006 at 6:17 PM Rating: Excellent
Eliff wrote:
Excellent info, thanks Az!

One question concerning percent to crit (as depicted by mousing over attack icon). Does this include any additional percent to crits you get from gear? As an example my two Assasination blades and Don Julios band add a total of 3% to crit. Should I add that 3% to the number displayed from the attack mouseover, or is that already included?


Not Azuarc but, yes, the number you see includes critical strike bonuses from your gear. It will not include talents that are ranged weapon specific only. So Lethal Shots will not included.
#5 Feb 17 2006 at 8:10 PM Rating: Excellent
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heh, you're welcome to post your own content, Rooke. You've done plenty of math work of your own, and I can usually trust the accuracy. (I'm also trusting you to catch any errors I make!)
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#6 Feb 21 2006 at 11:11 AM Rating: Excellent
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6,678 posts
Az Math #3:
Using a Shot Rotation



note: post-normalization and some other realizations, I may have to revisit the claims in this article


You can completely ignore this one if all you care about is PvP. It's usefulness is somewhat limited unless you raid or run instances.

Some hunters often outdamage other hunters, and without necessarily having better gear. You could argue, "what skill is there in autoshooting, and periodically pushing my 1 and 2 keys?"

Possibly nothing, as long as you're aware of certain facts, but your shots will generally go in cycles because of the cooldowns. You can also run through your mana faster than you need to. So with that in mind, if you want to do well on the damage meters or whatever, here's usually the best way to go about it - at least on any target with a sizable amount of health:


Hunter damage revolves around five things, some of which don't apply in certain situations:
1. Autoshot (auto) damage. This is the bulk, and rarely reason not to use it.
2. Aimed shot (AS) or Arcane shot (Arc). Unless you don't have Aimed shot, there are only a few situations where Arcane is better.
3. Multishot (MS). It's effectively a free shot, but it also breaks nearby crowd control.
4. Serpent Sting (Serp). Can't be used on many targets, though, and sometimes you'll need to apply a different sting.
5. The pet. Some hunters choose not to use pets in many situations, and I'm not going to argue whether or not you should, but it *is* an extra 50+ DPS for you.

Pet damage is mostly fire and forget. You might have to watch health against an AE mob, or turn on/off growl, but we can essentially not worry about the pet.

The issue mostly revolves around Aimed/Arcane and Multi. Aimed has an effective cooldown of 9 seconds when you include the 3 seconds for the shot, and Multi refreshes every 10. Arc is naturally 6 and can be reduced to 5.

The key issues are:
-Aimed Shot postpones your next autoshot, but it will occur immediately after the AS.
-The 5 second rule affects hunters on their mana-using abilities, meaning for the 5 seconds following a shot, you will not regenerate any mana.
-The effective cooldowns for Aimed and Multi are almost identical. Arcane is about half of Multi.

There are a couple ways to approach your shot cycling.


METHOD 1, USING AIMED AND MULTI ON A 10 SECOND CYCLE:

Elapsed Time in seconds, and what you do --
Turn on Autoshot. As soon as it fires...
0.0 Start an Aimed Shot
3.0 Aimed Shot fires, autoshot starts again, fire a multishot
~10.0 Start your next Aimed Shot
~13.0 Start your next Multi Shot
And repeat, every 10 seconds. You can stick a serpent sting at the end of the multishot every other pass if you want.

Every 10 seconds you will get 1 Aimed, 1 Multi, and 3-5 autoshots. (More on this later, but since we've addressed that slow weapons are generally better, we'll assume only 3.)

So in 10 seconds, you effectively do 5 autoshots, plus the damage bonuses on aimed and multi, which is 600+150=750 assuming you are using max ranks at 60.

We'll come back to this method, but first let's mention the other style.


METHOD 2, USING ARCANE SHOT:
0.0, Autoshot starts and an Arcane fires
1.0, Multishot
2.0, Serpent Sting
6.0, Arcane Shot
11.0, Multishot
12.0, Arcane
<remember this point>
17.0, Serpent Sting
18.0, Arcane
21.0, Multishot
24, Arcane
30, Arcane
31, Multi

As you can hopefully see, this is just wail on your Arcane and Multi Shots every time they refresh. If you truly cycle them, it will go on a 30 second pattern. However, I recommend a slightly different path.

See the point you were supposed to remember? If you hold off on your autoshot briefly so multi can recycle, you end up with a straight 20 second rotation. While it may not be mathematically superior, it's easier to get into a rhythm this way. Also, if you have your Improved Arcane talent maxed out, you can get 4 Arcane Shots in this period instead of 3.

But normally speaking, in a 20 second period, you will get 20 seconds of uninterrupted autoshot DPS, (about 7 autoshots,) plus 2 multis and 3 arcanes. This is like having 9 autoshots and 300 bonus damage, plus 549 arcane damage.

Compare this to the first method where you get 10 autoshots + 1500 across 20 seconds. (Double the 10 second amounts we listed earlier.) It's not hard to see that unless the armor on the target is incredibly high, you're going to do less damage this way. Not to mention, the armor argument is offset by the fact that Aimed Shot will crit far more frequently than Arcane, since Aimed is physical and Arcane uses your spell crit. (Don't ask me what your spell crit rate is, but it's NOT high.)

An additional downfall is that it uses mana faster. While the difference in mana cost between the two is significant, the more important factor is that if you are shooting an arcane every 6 seconds, you will essentially never regenerate any mana.

The only times you should use Arcane are if your build doesn't include Aimed Shot, or if Aimed isn't reasonable to use, like if you need to dodge an AE (Firemaw) or you are getting feared constantly. (Onyxia phase 3)



RETURNING TO METHOD 1:

There are no doubt a few key questions about the 10 second rotation.

Q: Why wait for the Multi Shot cooldown on Aimed Shot, rather than just shoot it right away?
A: Eventually Aimed Shot will just catch up with and "lap" Multishot, and in the meanwhile they are very staggered. Not only does it take more concentration, but you are also being hurt by the 5 second rule and not regenerating mana. When Aimed catches up with Multi, you're not doing anything differently unless you decide to stop your Multi to fire a second Aimed Shot. The actual damage advantage is minimal here. (After 63 seconds, you fire 7 Aimeds and 6 Multis, as opposed to 6 Aimeds and 6 Multis in about the same time, while being more flexible in autoshot interrupts.)


Q: Why should I shoot Aimed before Multi instead of after it?
A: Well, again, there's the issue of the 5 second rule. With Aimed first, the two shots occur at nearly the same time. With Multi first, they happen 3 seconds apart. However, I also think it's easier -- this is just a personal opinion, of course. Using Multishot first does make it so you don't have to watch your cooldowns any more closely than "Oh, multishot is up,time to fire it and start an Aimed." Doing it the other way really isn't any harder, though.


Q: How many autoshots should I fire before starting over again?
A: As a result of some long convoluted analysis, I'm just going to give you the answer without an explanation --
Weapon delay > 3.2 -- fire 3 autoshots
Weapon delay 2.4-3.2 -- fire 4 autoshots
Weapon delay < 2.4 -- fire 5 autoshots
-- and I suppose if your weapon is insanely fast, you might even take a 6th, but the importance of individual autoshots will also be fairly small. These numbers include the initial shot that follows Aimed, btw.

However, if you want this translated into English, loosely, it means watch your aimed shot cooldown. Once it recycles, wait for the next autoshot to fire, and then start your Aimed right after that. (At around 2.4 and 3.2, it's slightly better mathematically to just shoot at the 7 second mark if you can find it, but it won't make a big difference to wait for the next one.) Once you develop a rhythm for this, it becomes second-nature.


Q: If I have a ton of +spell damage gear, won't I do better using the Arcane method?
A: No, not really. In order to get enough Arcane damage to even come close to actually making this argument, you will hurt your other DPS so dramatically it's not worth it. Don't forget that Arcane shot only receives 3/7 of the number listed on a +spell damage item. (This is more of a caster thing than a hunter thing, and also applies to all instant spells, so you might not have known this, but now you do. In fact, I would argue it's not even worth obtaining the ZHC from killing Hakkar.)


Q: What should I do if this makes me go out of mana?
A: First of all, if you start going out of mana now, and you weren't before, I suspect you were being lazy and not firing when you could. However, you can always feign and drink during a long battle. (Just start drinking while laying down, don't jump up first.)

You might also consider using lower ranks of your shots -- the advantage of multishot is the free extra attack, not the +150 bonus damage, so rank 1 multi is nearly as effective and costs a third of the mana. Aimed *is* more about the bonus damage, so you don't want to dumb that down to rank 1, but I have heard of people using rank 3. I don't know if that's really better or not, though. It doesn't seem like it should be, but I haven't crunched the numbers on it yet.

And finally, if you're Alliance, yell at a paladin to put Judgement of Wisdom on your target. Using just Aimed and Multi (and no serpent,) you will gain back most of the mana you are using -- all of it if you're using a faster weapon. Obviously this makes mana conservation more important for a Horde player since Mana Tide totems don't really compare.


Q: So just how much does this increase my DPS by?
A: Well, I'm not going to draw up comparisons to all kinds of silly techniques and whatnot, but if you were to simply autoshoot for 10 seconds, not counting crits or armor or anything else, you would do your tooltip DPS * 10. Using the 10 second cycle, it becomes more akin to DPS * (somewhere between 10 and 15) + 75. If we make up numbers and say you have 150 tooltip DPS, a 25% crit rate, and a 3.3 delay crossbow, what would have been 1987 damage before armor increases to 3225, an actual DPS of 322 -- without ANY talents other than the 11 to get Aimed Shot. That's more than double the tooltip value.

Oh, and the old weapon speed argument? That's where that "somewhere between 10 and 15" comes in -- a Hurricane would be 11.2, and a Bloodseeker would be 16.5.

Edited, Fri May 12 02:06:41 2006 by Azuarc
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#7 Feb 26 2006 at 7:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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6,678 posts
Az Math #4:
Best Ranged Weapons


This is being written in response to a rumor that a Chinese mod posted weapons are going to be normalized to 2.8 speed. Doing so would invalidate a lot of previous math work done, so one might wonder, "if they do this, will it change which weapons are best?"

note: these changes have gone live.

This is a list compiled with an effective AP of 1600 -- but that includes ammo in it, so really more like 1400 -- and a crit rate of 25%. Mortal Shots and Barrage/full GS bonus assumed. Nothing more.

It *roughly* encompasses the top 40 weapons. I covered that much in detail to show you just how bad certain weapons were -- and still are, like Hurricane and the GM bow. Note how far down the list BSX and CSX jump, while Blastershot, Striker's, and a couple other's make decent gains on the totem.

Also, note that this does not include the weapon's bonuses and only their printed damage. Weapons that add 1% to crit or to hit, or have 18 agility, or whatever are not factored in.


Old refers to the way things stand now, in v1.9. New refers to how things would change if multishot and aimed shot were normalized to 2.8.


 
1.10 DPS  1.9 Name 
 1   465   3  Huhuran's 
 2   462   1  Ashjre'thul 
 3   460   2  GM Xbow/gun 
 4   456   8  Musket 
 5   456   5  Dragonbreath 
 6   456   4  Rhok'delar 
 7   448  10  Heartstriker 
 8   444   9  Dwarf Destroyer 
 9   443   6  Imminent Doom 
10   443   7  Polished Ironwood 
11   441  11  Blastershot 
12   435  18  Mandokir's 
13   435  12  Hoodoo Hunting 
14   433  14  Silithid Husked 
15   431  17  Crystal Slugthrower 
16   429  25  Striker's 
17   429  16  DHC 
18   427  19  ABB 
19   426  23  Deep Strike 
20   423  27  CMR 
21   421  22  Stoneshatter 
22   421  26  Dark Iron Rifle 
23   421  --  Fahrad's 
24   420  20  FAR 
25   420  28  Xorothian Firestick 
26   419  13  BSX 
27   418  15  CSX 
28   416  29  Taut Sinew 
29   415  24  Heartseeking Xbow 
30   415  21  Blackcrow 
31   412  35  GM Bow 
32   403  31  Outrider/runner 
33   400  34  Riphook 
34   400  32  Willey's Howitzer 
35   399  33  Satyr's Bow 
36   395  36  Shell Launcher 
37   395  37  Screeching Bow 
38   386  38  Eaglehorn 
39   376  30  Steelarrow Xbow 
40   374  39  Hurricane


And if you're wondering how I got all that...

Refer to my commentary in the previous article about shot cycles. This assumes the ideal 10-shot cycle for your weapon.

I determined, in roughly this order:
-Number of autoshots the weapon should use per cycle
-Actual time duration of that cycle
-Average damage from an autoshot
-Average damage from a multishot, before and after, with 15% bonus
-Average damage from an aimed shot, before and after
-Total before and total after, each divided by time duration for the cycle

The spreadsheet itself looks really complicated, but it's actually not, if you understand how damage-per-shot is calculated. (And no, I'm not posting the whole spreadsheet.)

Edited, Fri May 12 02:08:37 2006 by Azuarc
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#8 Feb 28 2006 at 7:34 PM Rating: Good
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6,678 posts
Az Math #5:
Shot Cycles, Revisited



Taken directly from a post of mine on the official boards:

People arguing about normalization are arguing back and forth about what's best and what's proper, and not making headway because not everyone is using the same shot cycle. I think it's time to explain the difference...and by scanning the other threads, you should know which one I favor, but I will try to be impartial.

First of all, let me begin with the purpose of a shot cycle -- a shot cycle is the ideal methodology for firing your special attacks in a prolonged situation where you can stand still and shoot...meaning it's almost only used on raids and on instance bosses -- and the reason we use a "cycle" is to boil down the shooting to its simplest level. Since Aimed Shot and Multi Shot have cool downs of 9 and 10 seconds, respectively, the cycle will simplify to something closely resembling one of the two. (And they aren't very far apart.) This is why you will often here this refered to as a "10 second cycle" - even though it practice it is not always exactly 10 seconds.

Note: Aimed is said here to have a 9 second cooldown because with the wind-up time of 3 seconds, you can only use it repeatedly every 9 seconds.


There are 3 methods:

1) Fire Aimed Shot every 9 second, and Multi whenever you can fit it around.
2) Fire Aimed Shot every 10 seconds, with Multi right after it.
3) Fire Multi Shot every 10 seconds, with Aimed right after it.



Method 2 and 3 are very similar, so we'll start with the difference in those two:

Method 2:
0.0 sec - Begin Aimed Shot
3.0 sec - finish Aimed Shot, start 7 sec of autoshot
3.1 sec - fire Multishot
10.0 - Begin Aimed Shot
13.0 - finish Aimed, autoshots
13.1 - fire Multishot
et cetera

Method 3:
0.0 sec - Fire Multi Shot
0.1 sec - Shoot Aimed Shot
3.1 sec - fire Aimed Shot, start 7 sec of autoshot
10.0 - Fire Multi Shot
10.1 - Shoot Aimed Shot
13.0 - Fire Aimed Shot
et cetera

You'll notice that at the end of every 10 second period, they are exactly the same. In fact, except for 3 out of every 10 seconds, they are more or less exactly the same. So Multi first frontloads the damage a little, which doesn't even matter 70% of the time. However, it ignores mana regeneration.

The 5 second rule was a mechanic introduced in beta to keep priests from loading up on spirit and never needing to worry about mana. It nullifies mana regeneration for the 5 seconds after a successful spell cast. Unfortunately, this carries over into our mana-using shots. And mana "ticks", or adds a small bit based on your spirit, every 2 seconds.

In method 3, you have a 3 second period between Multi and Aimed firing - no regen - and a 7 second period where 5 are nullified and in the last 2 you get a single "tick".

In method 2, you have a non-existent period between Aimed and Multi, and then nearly 10 seconds where 5 are nullified and you get 2 or possibly 3 ticks.

A tick adds a quarter of your spirit, so even if you only have 120 spirit, that's still an extra 45 mana on average you would be "saving".


The other issue is that Aimed shot should be fired IMMEDIATELY after an auto shot to minimize time lost to the 3 second wind-up. When you fire Multi first, it's very difficult to time that. You see auto-multi-auto in fairly rapid succession at the proper time to take your Aimed Shot. However, using Aimed first, you are better able to time the shot and less likely to lose an autoshot.

Unless you are starting to fire in a battle that will not last much longer, and you are rock-solid on timing 7 seconds, it's better to use Aimed first.



Comparing the 9 second cycle to the 10 second cycle:

Method 1 is sometimes called a 9 second cycle because it rotates strictly around Aimed Shot. Arguing between 1, and either 2 or 3, is trickier because method 1 isn't quite as cleanly repeated. In method 1, every 9 seconds you will:

0.0: Start Aimed
3.0: Fired Aimed
3.0-9.0: use autoshot
X: use Multishot, where X is somewhere between 3 and 9.
9.0: Start over with a new Aimed.

In the first pass, X will be 3 -- you'll shoot multi right after aimed. But on the second pass, it won't cool down until an extra second goes by, so it will occur at 4, then 5 on the next pass...when it gets to 9, you'll run into a dilemma -- Do I shoot Aimed or Multi first?

Because of this one second delay, your Multi eventually backs up into your next Aimed. On your 8th time around, you'll fire Aimed again before Multi.

So after 7 cycles, or 63 seconds, you will shoot:
7 Aimed Shots
6 Multi Shots
42 seconds of autoshot in seven windows of 6 seconds

By contrast, in a 10-second cycle, after 60 seconds, you will shoot:
6 Aimed Shots
6 Multi Shots
42 seconds of autoshot in six windows of 7 seconds

Looks like Method 1 wins, right?

Maybe, but not so quick. Two things...there's a three second difference in the duration, and in those 3 seconds, the second method fires an Aimed Shot. Where's the difference now? Answer -- purely in the cooldown position of Aimed Shot. Yes, the 9 second cycle still has an Aimed-Shot-cooldown-period advantage, however...

Remember the argument before about the 5 second rule? It's an even uglier difference here. The 10-second cycle still has the same 2.5 ticks per cycle, or about 450 mana per minute regenned at 120 spirit.

The 9-second cycle has multishot all over the dang place. You go from gaps of 3 and 6 seconds betweed Aimed-Multi-Aimed, to 4 and 5, to 5 and 4, 6 and 3, 7 and 2, 8 and 1, and finally 9 and 0. So altogether, you have an average total of 5.5 ticks of regen in that entire minute, or about 165 mana.

Method 2, which fires fewer shots, uses 2808 mana if you have Efficiency and use no other skills, like Serpent Sting, Feign Death, or Hunter's Mark. At full strength, a hunter is lucky to finish 2 minutes, and a raid boss will normally last 2 minutes, so that extra 285 mana per minute is going to matter.
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#9 Mar 01 2006 at 3:07 PM Rating: Decent
My god, to reiterate what azuarc said:

WTF am I doing with striker's mark

It's painful to see it so low down the list, with some blue bows in front of it ~.~
#10 Mar 03 2006 at 10:18 AM Rating: Decent
Yeah guy,
it certainly hurts the team--I've got a Striker's Mark, and it's lame that blue rewards from AV come out signifcantly better than it...explains why I'm not dominating the other hunters in dps like I used to.

The lame part is that I'll probably have a rhok'delar by the same the attack power is normalized so I won't even get to feel the benefit from the normalization with my Striker's Mark.
#11 Mar 08 2006 at 6:28 PM Rating: Decent
arf

time to look out for new weapons :)

Edited, Wed Mar 8 18:29:10 2006 by misterpro
#12 Mar 09 2006 at 11:25 AM Rating: Good
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6,678 posts
Az Math 6:
Improved Hawk


With 1.10 on the horizon, Improved Aspect of the Hawk is receiving a boost. It's easy to ask "how much of one?" Especially when previous attempts to calculate the old one were done without accuracy. (I am guilty of this as well.)

I decided enough's enough, and looked for a new way to tackle this annoying math problem so we could say just how much Hawk benefits someone who is standing still and shooting. (Of course, this is meaningless to someone who can't do so, which is most of PvP.)


The angle I'm going to approach this from is finding the average time it takes to trigger Quick Shots and then finally "turn off", and how many extra seconds worth of shooting you get in this cycle. The percent of extra time we get is equivalent to long-term haste, which is, in fact, a direct percent increase to DPS -- on autoshot and aimed, but not multi. But we'll ignore that last detail.

I'm going to assume 15% haste from quiver and other effects. (15% quiver or 13% quiver and two 1% haste items/librams.) Improved Hawk hastes your character by 30% for 12 seconds. Due to the way haste works, this means the actual benefit you get while QS is up is (1+quiver+.30) / (1+quiver) = 1.26, or 26% real haste. So across the 12 seconds of effect, this is like shooting for an extra 3.12 seconds in that time.

Let your printed delay be D, and so D/1.15 is your normal attack speed. With a 5% chance to trigger Quick Shots, it will take an average of 20 shots, which is 20*(D/1.15). Call this T for time. Yes, sometimes it will happen right away, and other times it might not happen for 10 minutes, but this is the average.

If we took a naive look, the long term benefits would be 3.12/T *100% long-term haste. But really, we have some shots during the actual haste effect that could retrigger. And that's why this is so complicated.

In fact, from here, I don't really care to type out the specifics of what I did. PM me if you really want to know, but if you aren't good with math, it will be confusing. (Although I suppose you would have to be to care.) However, to put it simply, I found the probability of any reproc, the average number of shots a reproc takes when it occurs, found the time of haste you received from that first proc, and then on average how many reprocs you get. From there, I could calculate total time and bonus time, and divide the one into the other.


In a nutshell, here are the average haste benefits:
 
Dly Time Gain Haste 
1.6 43.6 4.11  9.4% 
1.7 45.6 4.17  9.2% 
1.8 46.7 4.02  8.6% 
1.9 48.6 4.06  8.4% 
2.0 49.7 3.90  7.8% 
2.1 51.6 3.94  7.6% 
2.2 52.8 3.78  7.2% 
2.3 54.6 3.81  7.0% 
2.4 56.4 3.84  6.8% 
2.5 57.6 3.67  6.4% 
2.6 59.4 3.70  6.2% 
2.7 61.2 3.72  6.1% 
2.8 63.0 3.74  5.9% 
2.9 64.9 3.76  5.8% 
3.0 65.9 3.59  5.4% 
3.1 67.7 3.60  5.3% 
3.2 69.5 3.62  5.2% 
3.3 71.3 3.63  5.1% 
3.4 73.1 3.65  5.0% 


Dly is PRINTED weapon delay. Time is overall length of a cycle getting Quick Shots started, until it ends. Gain is the amount of extra time you effectively spent shooting in that time. So haste, is the long-term benefit.

I'm a total Excel noob, but I'm tempted to plug these values into my weapons spreadsheet and see how it shakes things up. Keep in mind, though, that this is only the benefits to Autoshot and Aimed, but not Multi, so that would effect the 10 second cycle. It isn't necessarily that simple. Although, sometimes you have to ignore details to get reasonably good answers in much more reasonable amounts of time.
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#13 Mar 12 2006 at 12:04 PM Rating: Good
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Az Math #7:
Agi, AP, or crit?


This is a cut-and-paste from an old post I dug up.


Considering new gear? Only care about damage output? While this analysis is probably pretty meaningless if you aren't a level 60 PvE raider, here's the direct conversions of numbers...

Find your tooltip DPS (T) and your crit rate as a percent (R). Take out all the "*1.3" factors if you don't have Mortal Shots.

1 DPS =...
14 / (1+R*1.3/100) Attack Power
100 / (T * 1.3) Crit %
1 / ( (1+R*1.3/100)/7 + 1.3*T/5300 ) Agi

And divide the agi line by 1.15 if you have Lightning Reflexes.


So, for example, a 150 DPS hunter with a 20% crit rate, would have 1 DPS =
11.1 AP
0.51% crit
4.61 agi


Want a conversion-to-crit factor? Divide everything by the chance to crit.
1% crit = 21.67 AP = 9.00 agi

Or divide everything by the agi value:
1 agi = 2.41 AP = .11% crit

Or divide by the AP value:
1 AP = .046% crit = .42 agi


How do I create an effective weighting in the armor upgrader?
Take that last line, and invert all the values. Those are your weights. So...
AP * 1
Agi * 2.4
Crit * 21.7


You'll need to fudge it a little to make it work out nicely on Allakhazam's upgrader, since it only takes whole numbers under 30. In fact, there really isn't a nice way to enter it. AP*2, Agi*5 would be reasonable, but then Crit would need to have a weight of 43. Nothing lower is really proportional. But if you decide to make your own spreadsheet, food for thought.



And if you're wondering how much it affects things to grossly increase the tooltip DPS or the crit rate...

150 DPS, 35% crit:
AP * 1
Agi * 2.35
Crit * 18.76

225 DPS, 20% crit:
AP * 1
Agi * 2.61
Crit * 32.5


Again, don't forget, if you have Lightning Reflexes, all the agi numbers are off by a factor of 1.15. Divide your initial agi value by 1.15.

So what's the best conversion to use on the armor upgrader? It depends a little on your equipment, but I think a good baseline to use, if you're pursuing the really high-end equipment, is 1*AP, 3*agi, 25*crit. This is a balance between the character before with 150 DPS, 20% crit and no LR, and higher values with LR included.
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#14 Mar 13 2006 at 6:30 PM Rating: Decent
First of all, I would like to give great thanks for all the hard work that has been done to put all this information together. For the most part it is exceptionally valuable.

What it doesn't cover is the agro ramifications of using aimed shot so much. Well geared, it's not hard to approach a thirty percent crit rate in MC. Combine that with a nice ranged weapon and an aimed shot and you're set to pull agro more than you should. The real problem is creating large points of damage early in a long fight. For me, aimed shot does not enter the rotation until the second or third ten second cycle. I also have my aimed shot in a macro to feign death then start aimed shot. If feign death is not availible yet, it gets ignored, but the inclusion in every cycle helps to clear agro as much as possible.

As blizzard makes agro control more and more critical in end content instances, we as hunters have to get better at balancing damage and control. Personally, it's been a struggle at times but well worth the effort.
#15 Mar 13 2006 at 6:44 PM Rating: Decent
If you open with Multi, do an auto, then wind up an Aimed, FD when it flies, do not wait for it to hit. Assuming you've waited for the tank to gain some initial agro, (3-5 sunders and hopefully a revenge proc), then clearing it 10 seconds in, you should be fine.

What really hurts is the agro-clearing Charge Blizz has put in to many of the newer mobs and bosses (Mandokir, ZG Berserkers, Ghaz-Ranka, etc). These often turn into ping-pong matches between tanks trying to trade agro. Gotta kind of save FD's during these fights for when they really do come for you.

Edited, Mon Mar 13 18:46:34 2006 by ReverendSC
#16 Mar 14 2006 at 7:28 PM Rating: Decent
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785 posts
ok, looks like my backup Xbow (stoneshatter) now is better than my CSX (it is a 2.9 speed so i guess that does it).

Xorothian firestick, which i have as well, is better hehe.

Still trying to get mandokir's sting/gurubashi dwarf destroyer though :D
#17 Mar 21 2006 at 8:24 PM Rating: Decent
I find that i nuke the crap out of everything in big boss fights... I have bow and use lesser mana oil for some regen..
Now since i seldom let it go more than 5 secs between spells i dont get much mana regen from spirit... not that i would get ********* if i waited some more seconds... So i think that + mana/5secs is better for hunters than spi.

I have a question for the normalization:
Will the aimed and multi dmg be calculated from dps of the bow instead of the dmg? or am i missing some basic crap..
if it's the dps then the hurricane will be come imba for its lvl. and other weapons will become nerfed and useless
#18 Mar 22 2006 at 10:08 AM Rating: Good
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Neither.

Before: Weapon damage + AP bonus * Weapon delay
After: Weapon damage + AP bonus * a flat 2.8
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#19 Mar 22 2006 at 10:53 AM Rating: Good
Azuarc wrote:
heh, you're welcome to post your own content, Rooke. You've done plenty of math work of your own, and I can usually trust the accuracy. (I'm also trusting you to catch any errors I make!)


Me enjoy testing things and trying to figure out how things work but your algebraic ability is greater than mine. Might have some questions about how or why you did something but not sure me could catch an error.
#20 Mar 22 2006 at 11:35 AM Rating: Good
ericmalicoat wrote:
What it doesn't cover is the agro ramifications of using aimed shot so much. Well geared, it's not hard to approach a thirty percent crit rate in MC. Combine that with a nice ranged weapon and an aimed shot and you're set to pull agro more than you should. The real problem is creating large points of damage early in a long fight. For me, aimed shot does not enter the rotation until the second or third ten second cycle. I also have my aimed shot in a macro to feign death then start aimed shot. If feign death is not availible yet, it gets ignored, but the inclusion in every cycle helps to clear agro as much as possible.

As blizzard makes agro control more and more critical in end content instances, we as hunters have to get better at balancing damage and control. Personally, it's been a struggle at times but well worth the effort.


You are correct. Azuarc did not mention how a 10 second shot rotation could affect aggro. But it is my belief that Azuarc was just presenting the numbers so that others can make informed decisions.

What we do with this information is up to us. Me do agree that caution needs to be exercised when going "all out dps" or we become a liability to the success of a raid.
#21 May 12 2006 at 12:47 AM Rating: Good
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6,678 posts
wow, page 7...gonna have to write something new for this real soon
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#22 May 14 2006 at 3:39 PM Rating: Decent
First of all gz for this post, its simply great.

Can you say something about Ashjre'thul vs Huhuran's Stinger
Does still Ashjre'thul beats all other bows in pvp and pve ?
#24 May 18 2006 at 1:27 PM Rating: Good
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6,678 posts
Az Math 8:
Is slow speed really dead?



In my earlier write-ups regarding shot cycles, I largely dismiss the 9 second cycle, citing that is does a little more damage but hoses your mana regen. In thinking about it, I decided this was unfair. First of all, most mana regen available to a hunter comes from sources not affected by the 5 second rule. Second, it DOES do more damage, even if you can't keep it up as long, right?

Most notably, the amount of actual shot time Ashjre'thul, the according-to-me #2 weapon sits there doing nothing for over a second at the end of it's cycle. That doesn't seem quite right, does it? What would happen if we could nix that downtime by using a 9 second cycle?

So I redid my spreadsheet, which needed redoing anyway.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v332/Azuarc/Misc2/newnormal.jpg

I considered four different possibilities as the optimal shot cycle for a given weapon:
1. 10 second cycle, at precisely every 10 seconds (10 clip)
2. 10 second cycle, waiting for the next autoshot (10 full)
3. 9 second cycle, precisely every 9 seconds (9 clip)
4. 9 second cycle, waiting for the next autoshot (9 full)

Here is the optimal technique for each weapon, and their DPS accordingly, using 25% crit, 1400 AP, 15% multi bonus, 15% quiver.

#  method DPS   name 
1  9 clip 495.8 Ashjre'thul 
2  10full 465.3 Huhuran's 
3  10full 459.8 GM Xbow/gun 
4  9 clip 458.4 Imminent Doom 
5  9 clip 457.9 Polished Ironwood 
6  10clip 457.2 Blessed Musket 
7  10full 456.3 Dragonbreath 
8  10full 455.8 Rhok'delar 
9  10clip 449.2 Heartstriker 
10 9 clip 449.2 Bloodseeker 
11 9 clip 448.2 CSX 
12 9 clip 445.8 Fahrad's 
13 10full 444.4 Dwarf Destroyer 
14 10clip 441.6 Blastershot 
15 9 clip 439.0 Blackcrow 
16 9 full 438.6 Striker's 
17 10clip 435.9 Mandokir's 
18 9 full 435.3 GM bow 
19 10full 434.9 Hoodoo hunting 
20 9 full 432.8 CMR 
21 10full 432.5 Silithid Husked 
22 9 clip 431.4 Taut Sinew 
23 10full 430.5 Crystal Slugthrower 
24 9 clip 430.2 Heartseeking xbow 
25 10full 428.3 DHC 
26 10full 427.0 ABB 
27 10full 426.3 Deep strike bow 
28 9 clip 426.1 FAR 
29 9 full 424.1 Outrider/runner 
30 9 clip 421.9 Screeching bow 
31 10full 421.3 Stoneshatter 
32 10full 421.1 Dark iron rifle 
33 10clip 420.9 Xorothian firestick 
34 9 full 420.4 Willey's Howitzer 
35 9 full 420.1 Satyr's bow 
36 9 clip 415.1 Riphook 
37 9 full 408.6 Eaglehorn 
38 9 clip 403.2 Steelarrow xbow 
39 9 clip 399.3 Megashot Rifle 
40 9 full 395.4 Hurricane



So maybe slow speed isn't dead with normalization. Ashjre'thul only has about an 8% lead on anything else listed. (Hot damn. Now I don't feel stupid for looting one the night before 1.10.)

Edited, Fri May 19 14:05:20 2006 by Azuarc
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#25 May 19 2006 at 9:58 AM Rating: Decent
Can you just confirm that Heartstriker, on a 10 second clipped cycle, does more damage than Rhok, and that Bloodseeker and CSX (i.e. 2 blues) also do more damage than the epic quest reward! I think this may be a typo, and Rhok should read 455.8, not 445.8.
#26 May 19 2006 at 12:58 PM Rating: Good
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455.8
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