Iluien wrote:
Talking about the quality of the game and mixing that with talking about the commercial success of the game is just a nonsense, they are very different subjects.
Different but related. I don't think you'd argue that the quality of a game directly affects its commercial success. Someone mentioned the "built in" audience to WoW (and you could say the same for FFXI) but it takes more than that. Just look at the pathetic clusterfu[Aqua][/Aqua]ck known as "Star Wars: Galaxies" and tell me that a crappy game will be successful despite itself.
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If WoW is a true commercial success, one of two things will probably happen, SOE will buy out Blizzard, or SOE will sell SOE Online Games to Blizzard.
Maybe, maybe not. First off, it's hard to believe that WoW
isn't a commercial success. Regardless of how any one individual feels about the game, it has five and a half million people paying around fifteen bucks a month to play it. This year alone, Blizzard will be making more off of subscription fees than Everquest made in its entire lifetime*. Granted, physical overhead is higher as well but the same core game concept that Verant/SOE was selling to 500k people for $10-$15 is being sold to eleven times that many people by Blizzard.
I disagree that a buy-out has to occur for a "success" to be declared. Going back to my soda analogy, I don't think anyone claims that Coca-Cola is an unsuccessful venture just because they haven't bought out the folks at Cadbury-Schweppes yet.
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Vanguard is simply irelevant to them. If in year or so's time it has a significant subscription base it will come onto the radar, right now, all it is doing is costing someone several huge fortunes to get it out into the market. A very high risk venture.
No doubt. While we can point to WoW, FFXI and EQ as success stories, it's true that the list of "failures" (I think only Shadowbane has offically closed) is longer. My point was merely that while "Har, Har! Remember how Anarchy Online was supposed to kill EQ?" was a fun defense in 2002, EQ has been long surpassed in subscriber numbers by several games. I have nothing against Everquest and I doubt any one game will "kill" it, but I suspect it'll whittle down to the same tier as Dark Age of Camelot, City of Heroes and Ultima Online -- alive but happy to just be sustaining. Vanguard probably won't cause that by itself, but it'll be one more chip off a finite number of subscribers especially with its built in Everquest connection.
*Everquest has averaged 350k subscribers over its lifetime and
has increased in subscription rate from ~$10 to $15 for an average of $12.50.
(350,000*12.5*12)*7 = $367,500,000 over seven years
World of Warcraft has 5.5mil subscribers paying $15/mth.
(5,500,000*15*12) = $990,000,000 this year.
The particulars may be a little off but the principle is clear. Edited, Thu Apr 13 00:59:59 2006 by Jophiel