I had this problem as well right after I upgraded my video drivers post-patch. There are several possible solutions. First, check the connection settings in internet explorer (tools, internet options) and make sure they are correct. If they are correct and you have web access but still can't get the patcher to connect, I suggest doing a system restore (winXP) to a setpoint like 2 days ago when you could connect. Then go through the video driver upgrade process again (I am assuming you upgraded when they prompted you to immediately post-patch).
The system restore worked for me, and my patcher would now connect normally.
There are a few threads on Sony's boards about this but they are getting burried rapidly by the huge number of posts this week - search for 'connection failure'. Clearly something many of us did post-patch messed up the patcher connection settings. Good luck...
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